Only a few weeks ago, there was a near consensus in Brazil that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was the favorite to win this October’s election over his main challenger, conservative Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
Today, most polls show the race is tied, and Flávio Bolsonaro seems to have the momentum. With the first round of voting on October 4 and a second round very likely on October 25, it’s been a unique—and to outsiders, somewhat confusing—campaign in Brazil.
In recent months, the main issue has been not the economy, or security, as we’ve seen in other recent Latin American elections, but a corruption scandal involving Daniel Vorcaro, a disgraced banker whose network of influence and business ties extended to much of Brazil’s political and economic establishment. Back in May, Bolsonaro was badly damaged by alleged ties to Vorcaro. But more recently, attention has shifted to Vorcaro’s alleged ties to Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes. Those revelations, in turn, seem to have damaged Lula. (All deny any wrongdoing.)
This week on the podcast, we look at the latest on the Vorcaro scandal and other key factors in this race, including the health of Brazil’s economy and whether President Trump will try to intervene on behalf of the Bolsonaro family, with Thomas Traumann, a longtime political analyst and commentator, who is also a member of AQ’s editorial board.
Listen to this episode and subscribe to The Americas Quarterly Podcast on Apple, Spotify and other platforms
Guest:
Thomas Traumann is a political analyst at GloboNews TV and the O Globo newspaper. He is a member of Americas Quarterly’s editorial board.
Host:
Brian Winter is editor in chief of Americas Quarterly
If you would like to know more:
The Battle for Brazil’s Swing Voters: Women by Thomas Traumann
The Donroe Doctrine’s China Paradox by Fernanda Magnotta
Brazil: Meet the Candidates 2026 by Emilie Sweigart
Trump Pushes the Bolsonaros to the Brink by Brian Winter
Q&A: Thomas Traumann on Brazil’s October Elections by Emilie Sweigart
AQ Podcast | Trump Wades into Brazil’s Campaign (Again)
Chris Garman on the FTO designation, new tariffs, and what Washington's latest moves mean for Brazil's October election.
