Venezuela: The Brutal Truth About Maduro’s Election Victory
By any measure, Sunday’s gubernatorial elections in Venezuela did not go well for the opposition. The regime of President Nicolás Maduro took 17 of a possible 23 seats, with, as of this writing, another still up for grabs. Marred by predictable irregularities and government manipulation, the MUD opposition coalition’s decision to participate failed to pay … Read more
Why Argentina’s Kirchner Is Poised for a Comeback – Despite Corruption Charges
If Cristina Fernández de Kirchner wins a senate seat in Sunday’s mid-term elections, as she is poised to do, her comeback would be significant: The former president is under investigation in at least eight separate corruption cases. Part of the explanation for why these investigations have not sunk Fernández’s senate bid may lie with Argentina’s … Read more
Mexico 2018: Can AMLO Really Get to 20 Million Votes?
A question institutional investors often ask regarding Mexico’s presidential elections next year is: Can Andrés Manuel López Obrador actually win? Most polls do indeed put the leftist former mayor of Mexico City, known popularly by his initials, AMLO, ahead of hypothetical adversaries today. But the road to the 20 million votes he likely needs to … Read more
Why Politics Won’t Come Easy for the Newly Disarmed FARC
The Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia’s (FARC) move into politics came to the accordion-rich tune of vallenato. On Sept. 1, the former armed group held a free concert for supporters in Bogotá’s historic Simón Bolívar square, capping off a week-long conference that confirmed its transformation into a full-fledged political party. Many of the 10,000 or … Read more
It’s Not Just Venezuela. Central American Democracies Are Under Threat, Too.
The first sign of trouble on my recent research trip to Nicaragua was that almost nobody would speak to me about President Daniel Ortega on the record. “I just don’t want any problems with Ortega,” one person said. Félix Maradiaga, a social entrepreneur from Managua, told me: “The government leaves you alone as long as … Read more
How Venezuelans Could Reshape Elections in Florida
As an engineer, Jorge Pacheco never expected his job would make him the target of political persecution. But as Venezuela’s finances floundered and its public services deteriorated, the Venezuelan government blamed engineers at the state-owned electrical provider CORPOELEC for power grid disruptions. As political persecution became more common, the young man made the difficult choice … Read more
In Argentina, the Ghost of Populism Haunts Investors Ahead of Elections
This piece has been updated. Every morning María Graciela Ottaviani sets up a cart by the beach in Mar del Plata, Argentina, where she sells popcorn to the tourists that flock to the coastal city. It’s not easy work for the 71-year-old, who recently broke an elbow when she fell on the stairs. But ever … Read more
The Six Players in Venezuela’s Crisis
Venezuela is at a crossroads. President Nicolás Maduro is pushing ahead with a vote Sunday to elect a 545-member National Constituent Assembly (ANC) with powers to rewrite the constitution and cement his hold on power. Events over the next few days will determine the survival of Venezuelan democracy, the welfare of its population, and the … Read more
Venezuela’s Neighbors Need to Step Up. What’s Holding Them Back?
Last week, U.S. President Donald Trump promised “strong and swift economic actions” if Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro goes through with the July 30 vote to select delegates to the constituent assembly. This announcement comes after an increasingly desperate situation in Venezuela has been met with remarkable regional inaction, producing a power vacuum not seen for decades. Those, however, … Read more
The Venezuelan Diaspora’s Role in Confronting Maduro
On Sunday, July 16 more than 7 million Venezuelans – at home and abroad – participated in a symbolic referendum against the constitutional convention proposed by President Nicolás Maduro. I was one of the votes from abroad. Besides casting my ballot, I also volunteered to accompany observers witnessing the process in New York City. We started by visiting … Read more
Brazil Is Tired. Guess Who Benefits?
Everywhere you go in Brazil, it’s the same thing. Circles under the eyes, hushed voices. A shrug. “Fazer o que?” In the bakeries of Eastern São Paulo. In courtrooms. In President Michel Temer’s government. Outside shuttered storefronts. At City Hall. In the 50-person line for jobs at a yogurt shop. In corporate suites. The anger … Read more
Brazil Is Tired. Guess Who Benefits?
Everywhere you go in Brazil, it’s the same thing. Circles under the eyes, hushed voices. A shrug. “Fazer o que?” In the bakeries of Eastern São Paulo. In courtrooms. In President Michel Temer’s government. Outside shuttered storefronts. At City Hall. In the 50-person line for jobs at a yogurt shop. In corporate suites. The anger … Read more
Lula’s Sentencing Should Be a Sober Moment for All Brazilians
Former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s sentencing on Wednesday was long expected, but no less of a bombshell. Lula may have fallen from the pedestal of international acclaim and approval ratings north of 80 percent; a majority of Brazilians may think he broke the law, at a time when citizens are becoming more aware … Read more
My Brother, Leopoldo López, Is No Longer in Prison. But He Is Not Free – and Neither Is Venezuela.
My brother Leopoldo López, leader of Venezuela’s Voluntad Popular party, was sentenced to 13 years, nine months, seven days and 12 hours in prison for giving a speech in which he denounced the corruption and the antidemocratic repression of Nicolás Maduro’s government. He was arrested in 2014 during a government crack-down on protesters, and charged … Read more
A Radical Change in Chile? Don’t Bet On It
In last week’s presidential primaries, Chilean voters followed the dominant trend in Latin America and signaled that they are ready to hand power back to Sebastián Piñera, a center-right market-friendly former president (2010-2014). If Piñera wins the general election in November, Chile will complete an unprecedented 16- year run under only two democratically elected leaders … Read more
