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Brazil’s Economy Is Perking Up (If You Know Where to Look)
After weathering the worst recession of a century, Brazil’s economy is showing signs of life. Unemployment is down, GDP is up, and an important sector is enjoying a sustained comeback: The capital markets for initial public offerings, or IPOs, for Brazil-based companies are the most active they have been in at least six years. The … Read more
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Craft Beer Thrives in a Rio de Janeiro Favela
The bar is small, housed in a converted garage near an entrance to the vast Complexo do Alemão favelas in Rio de Janeiro’s north side. But step inside, and big ambitions are on display: 120 types of beer from places as distant as Belgium line the wall. Despite its outsized aspirations, Bistrô Estação R&R is … Read more
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Four Takeaways From Argentina’s Game-Changing Mid-Term Elections
Investors wondering whether President Mauricio Macri’s tough austerity reforms had popular support heard a resounding “yes” on Sunday, when voters swept his center-right coalition to victory in Argentina’s five largest voting districts in a crucial mid-term election. While Macri’s success was expected, no party has managed this feat in mid-term elections since 1985. Here … Read more
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Venezuela: The Brutal Truth About Maduro’s Election Victory
By any measure, Sunday’s gubernatorial elections in Venezuela did not go well for the opposition. The regime of President Nicolás Maduro took 17 of a possible 23 seats, with, as of this writing, another still up for grabs. Marred by predictable irregularities and government manipulation, the MUD opposition coalition’s decision to participate failed to pay … Read more
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Why Argentina’s Kirchner Is Poised for a Comeback – Despite Corruption Charges
If Cristina Fernández de Kirchner wins a senate seat in Sunday’s mid-term elections, as she is poised to do, her comeback would be significant: The former president is under investigation in at least eight separate corruption cases. Part of the explanation for why these investigations have not sunk Fernández’s senate bid may lie with Argentina’s … Read more
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Is NAFTA Over Now?
Following Tuesday’s events, it is not an exaggeration to say that the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is on life support, and it is unclear whether the patient will even survive into the coming year. Though the advance writing was flashing brightly on the wall, the three lead NAFTA negotiators put paid to the … Read more
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The Next Step in Mexico’s Corruption Fight
Mexicans are fed up with graft, though their elected leaders have been slow to respond. Now, thanks to an increasingly vocal civil society, there are signs that impunity might no longer be certain, and that corrupt officials can expect political consequences for their misdeeds. “Mexico has awakened to notice that many of the dysfunctionalities of … Read more
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Procura-se: um presidente brasileiro (sano) que possa acabar com a violência
Read in English RIO DE JANEIRO — O feed mais importante do Twitter na capital carioca hoje em dia é chamado Onde Tem Tiroteio. Numa tarde recente, no espaço de poucas horas, ele enviou os seguintes alertas para seus 36.000 seguidores: “Tiros sendo ouvidos em Botafogo, próximo ao Santa Marta e a Cobal. Atenção na … Read more
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What Trump’s “America First” Means for Latin America
Smart great powers ensure their safety by befriending smaller neighboring countries. China is engaged in a high-profile charm offensive to overcome long-standing animosities and draw its Southeast Asian neighbors into its orbit, through trade agreements and massive infrastructure projects. The Russia of Vladimir Putin is working hard to regain influence in territories of the former … Read more
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Wanted: A (Sane) Brazilian President Who Can Stop the Violence
Ler em português RIO DE JANEIRO – The most vital Twitter feed here these days is called Onde Tem Tiroteio, or “Where There Is a Shootout.” One recent afternoon, in a span of just a few hours, it sent these alerts to its 36,000 followers: “Shots heard in Botafogo, near Santa Marta and Cobal. Attention … Read more
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The Trouble With Cuba’s New Economy
When Raúl Castro steps down as Cuba’s president in February 2018, he will hand off to his successor the unfinished task of reforming the economy. It is Cuba’s most urgent need and, at the same time, an increasingly controversial one. Castro succeeded his brother Fidel as president in 2008 amid serious structural economic problems on … Read more
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Why It’s So Hard to Keep the Lights On in Puerto Rico
The third week of September was the longest of my life. Hurricane Maria hit Puerto Rico on Sept. 20 and almost immediately plunged the island into darkness – downing telephone lines, flooding roads and shutting down the power grid. My grandparents were home in Patillas, on Puerto Rico’s southeastern coast, when Maria made landfall. Days … Read more
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Mexico 2018: Can AMLO Really Get to 20 Million Votes?
A question institutional investors often ask regarding Mexico’s presidential elections next year is: Can Andrés Manuel López Obrador actually win? Most polls do indeed put the leftist former mayor of Mexico City, known popularly by his initials, AMLO, ahead of hypothetical adversaries today. But the road to the 20 million votes he likely needs to … Read more
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The One Big Trend in Latin America’s Coming Elections
“Anybody who tells you they know who will win is misinformed,” a Mexican political analyst recently told me in a debate about next year’s presidential elections. In a scenario where only 2 percent of Mexicans trust political parties and only 4 percent believe the country is on the right track, she said, anything can happen. … Read more
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Could Hurricane Maria Force a Change in Puerto Rico’s Relationship to the U.S.?
Hurricane Maria, which devastated Puerto Rico, was the third major storm to hit the U.S. in a month. It followed fast in the wake of Hurricane Harvey and Hurricane Irma, which concentrated their damage on Florida and Texas. Their quick succession highlighted the vast differences between Washington’s response to a disaster that hit the commonwealth, … Read more
