This article is adapted from AQ’s special report on Lula and Latin America | Leer en español | Ler em português
Love him or not, the return of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is a watershed moment not just for Brazil, but Latin America as a whole.
The 77-year-old is “the region’s only diplomatic heavy hitter and the most globally visible Latin American leader of his generation,” writes Oliver Stuenkel in this issue’s cover story. With that in mind, Stuenkel assesses what Lula might mean for a variety of regional and global priorities: Management of the Amazon, navigating the U.S.-China rivalry, opportunities for more trade and investment within Latin America itself, and more.
The possibilities are real. With Latin America’s economies stagnant since the commodities boom ended a decade ago, and many democracies struggling with internal divisions, the region has lost much of the diplomatic clout attained in the glory days of the 2000s, when Lula was last in office. Having a more prominent seat at the global table could help raise Latin America’s profile among investors and move the ball forward on climate, food security and green energy. Lula’s early visits to Washington, Beijing, and regional capitals have made the scale of his ambitions clear.
But as Stuenkel notes, 2023 is not 2003. Memories of Brazil’s last run at regional primacy are mixed; everyone in Latin America remembers the Odebrecht scandals. Lula’s recent comments regarding the war in Ukraine have often sounded pro-Russia, diminishing Brazil’s credibility not just in Europe and the United States, but in several Latin American capitals as well. Even some fans doubt how much bandwidth Lula will have given deep domestic problems at home, including polarization and a slow economy.
Lula’s legendary charm, and underestimated knowledge of policy, could prove to be welcome assets for Brazil and the region. By focusing on crises closer to home than Ukraine, and nudging his longtime allies in Venezuela and Nicaragua to return to democracy, Lula could attain the global recognition he appears to seek. That would be a legacy worth celebrating, and a positive for all of Latin America.
Listen to this episode of The Americas Quarterly Podcast for more on Lula’s foreign policy
Under Lula, Brazil Can Take On Regional Leadership. Will It?
A diplomatic heavy hitter is back at the helm of Latin America’s largest country—but the path to an influential international role is full of obstacles.
Q&A: Brazil’s Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira on the “Lula Doctrine”
An exclusive interview with Brazil’s top diplomat, on the relationship with China, the U.S., the need for multilateral reform, and more.
Why Mexico Is a Quiet Presence on the World Stage
Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s insular foreign policy, in the region’s second-largest economy, is a missed opportunity.
Susan Segal: Lula’s Opportunity to Lead the Region
Brazil’s president is in a unique position to direct the region towards an integrated and productive future, writes AS/COA’s president.
Thinking Abroad: Latin America’s Foreign Policies
AQ tracks priorities in external relations, including positions on Venezuela and China, in eight countries.
