SANTIAGO—As president of the United States, Donald Trump is sticking to bold campaign promises that appeal to a broad base of Americans seeking change and disenchanted with traditional politics. His rhetoric on Latin America and the Caribbean has consistently framed the region as a source of irregular migration and organized crime. This has prompted leaders across the region to wonder what his return means for them.
When President Trump declared from the Oval Office that Latin American countries “need us much more than we need them,” he misjudged the complex dynamics of the region. The lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, economic instability, growing political polarization and the increasing influence of global powers like China and Russia are critical factors that his administration will need to consider. Here are ten key issues to watch during Trump’s second term:
1. Navigating Democratic Erosion
Democratic backsliding presents a significant challenge across the region. Structural problems persist in Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba, where authoritarian leaders suppress opposition through force. In many countries, citizens increasingly doubt democracy’s ability to address their daily problems. More than half now report they would support an autocracy if it solved their problems, like crime and economic stagnation.
Questions about the effectiveness of permanent states of emergency in countries like El Salvador and the rise of political extremism and extreme rhetoric highlight the urgency of initiatives addressing democratic limitations. The Trump administration’s response to this type of punitive and populist rhetoric and action will pave the way for ongoing deterioration. Trump’s campaign framing of Latin American migrants as criminals or economic burdens may embolden populist leaders in the region to adopt similarly exclusionary and nationalist stances, further polarizing societies and undermining democratic norms.
2. Ignoring Climate Change
Latin America faces severe climate challenges, including Amazon deforestation and extreme weather events. Trump’s return heralds renewed climate skepticism and a lack of commitment to regional environmental initiatives. Without U.S. leadership, the region’s already strained social and economic conditions will worsen. Beyond withdrawing from international agreements, Trump’s encouragement of polluting industries could lead to long-term structural consequences, emboldening resource extraction industries and leading to increased deforestation, mining and fossil fuel development in countries like Brazil, Ecuador and Venezuela. Trump’s withdrawal from global climate commitments will reduce pressure on Latin American nations to meet their own climate targets.
3. Countering the Asian Dragon
Since 2020, China has solidified its role as a key trade partner and investor in Latin America. Countries like Chile, Brazil and Argentina have deepened their dependence on Chinese markets, technology and financing. The Trump administration must devise a competitive strategy to counter China’s influence—one focused not on threats and sanctions but on promoting diversified investments and infrastructure projects.
There is a clear need to promote regional supply chains by incentivizing U.S. companies to relocate production to Latin America. The U.S. could lead an infrastructure fund, together with international financial institutions and the private sector, to tackle telecommunications, digital connectivity, highways and ports. However, the political will seems limited.
4. The Migration Mirage
Millions of Latin Americans continue to seek better economic opportunities, fleeing violence, or escape the impacts of climate change by migrating to the U.S. Border walls, militarization, family separations and mass deportations have failed to address the structural issues driving migration. While Mexico has cooperated with the U.S. to curb irregular migration, strained relations caused, among other issues, by Trump’s threat of 25% tariffs could jeopardize migration policy collaboration. To effectively tackle the increasing number of migrants in the U.S., Trump needs Mexico.
5. Treating Cartels as Terrorists
Trump’s administration has designated Mexican drug cartels as terrorist organizations, a significant move from the world’s largest consumer of cocaine and fentanyl. However, it remains unclear whether military “surgical” strikes aimed at dismantling cartels would achieve anything beyond destabilizing local and national scenarios or escalating violence in U.S. cities. The decades-long “war on drugs” has led to increased cocaine production, decentralized trafficking routes and expanded markets, raising questions about the efficacy of such an approach.
6. Venezuela’s Enduring Crisis
Venezuela’s crisis has worsened, with over seven million people displaced. Trump’s reliance on sanctions to pressure Nicolás Maduro’s regime has yielded diminishing returns. Meanwhile, countries like Colombia, Peru and Brazil struggle to support Venezuelan refugees. Addressing the humanitarian consequences will require a multilateral approach involving the European Union and other regional allies. However, Trump has shown little interest in pursuing such strategies, favoring rhetoric over substantive initiatives.
In his second term, Trump and his State Department may double down on sanctions targeting the oil sector. He could formally label Venezuela as a state sponsor of terrorism, citing alleged ties between Maduro’s government and groups like Hezbollah, as well as its role in drug trafficking.
7. The Elusive End of the Cuban Revolution
Cuba faces one of its worst crises in recent years, with severe economic, energy and food shortages. During his first term, Trump rolled back Obama-era agreements with Cuba, and his return signals a continuation of restrictive measures. These policies risk alienating Caribbean nations and strengthening Cuba’s ties with Russia and China. While negotiation could deepen the regime’s crisis, Trump’s fiery rhetoric seems more focused on appeasing his base than achieving strategic outcomes.
8. Strengthening Trade Partnerships
While Trump renegotiated NAFTA into the USMCA during his first term, his 2025 administration faces new challenges in maintaining stable trade relations. Mexico and Canada may resist further renegotiations, while countries like Brazil and Argentina remain cautious about tariffs on key exports such as steel and agricultural products. Strengthening trade ties without resorting to protectionism will be crucial. Nearshoring and friend-shoring strategies could reduce U.S. dependence on Chinese goods while fostering synergies with regional partners.
9. Combating Regional Fragmentation
Ideological divisions and divergent priorities have weakened Latin America’s ability to respond collectively to shared challenges. Trump’s preference for bilateral agreements over multilateralism risks exacerbating this fragmentation, undermining the region’s unity in addressing critical issues such as climate change, inequality, poverty, or organized crime. That could heighten confrontations among Latin American countries along pro- and anti-U.S. lines and weaken key regional institutions such as the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights.
10. Seizing the Opportunity for Pragmatism
Yet Latin America has a long history of resisting U.S. initiatives, and this period should be no exception. By leveraging existing multilateral mechanisms, acknowledging the limitations of bilateral agendas and fostering a shared vision for regional, hemispheric and global challenges, Latin America could pragmatically overcome its divisions under Trump’s second term.
The region should strengthen organizations like the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) or the Pacific Alliance to create cohesive—yet pragmatic, and in some cases specific rather than ideologically-based—blocs capable of collectively addressing U.S. policies. Also, regional strategies to reduce dependence on the U.S. market could be designed, such as promoting intra-regional trade, shared infrastructure projects and investment in regional supply chains.
There’s a need to negotiate with the U.S. from a position of collective strength rather than as isolated nations. However, local political will is essential, and failure to act will perpetuate the perception of a region defined by migration and crime.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Lucía Dammert
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Dammert is a professor of international relations at the Universidad de Santiago de Chile.
