This article is adapted from AQ’s special report on the Trump Doctrine
Colombia
PRESIDENT
Gustavo Petro
IN OFFICE
Since 2022
A rapidly shifting relationship with the U.S., heightened political tensions, and a deteriorating security situation will characterize Petro’s last year in office. Following months of confrontation, Trump and Petro spoke in January, and an official visit is scheduled for early February. Coca production has boomed, and the U.S. decertified Colombia for not complying with the war on drugs amid violent confrontations between armed groups and Colombian security forces. The 2025 assassination of presidential hopeful and senator Miguel Uribe set off fears of a return to political violence, and security is a top concern ahead of the March 8 legislative election and May 31 first round presidential vote. Last June, Colombia suspended its fiscal rule through 2027, and according to Morgan Stanley’s analysts, the next administration will “inherit a difficult fiscal situation.” The government increased the minimum wage by 23% in late December, raising inflation concerns.
TRENDS TO WATCH
- March and May elections
- Erosion in public safety
- Evolving Petro-Trump relations
GDP GROWTH
INFLATION RATE
KEY FIGURES
| Population (2026, millions) | 53.5 |
| Poverty rate (2026, World Bank definition, see note below) | 35.7% |
| Unemployment rate (2026) | 9.8% |
| Informal employment rate (2024) | 56.1% |
| Secondary education completion rate (2023) | 78.2% |
ECONOMIC INDICATORS (2026 PROJECTIONS)
| GDP growth (annual % change) | 2.3% |
| Inflation rate (annual % change) | 3.5% |
| Fiscal balance (% GDP) | -5.7% |
| China’s share of total export value (2024) | 4.8% |
| U.S. share of total export value (2024) | 30.2% |
NOTES: Poverty line is $8.30 per day in 2021 PPP. Percentages rounded to nearest decimal point.
SOURCES: Presidential approval: Invamer (Nov. 2025); GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, population, unemployment: IMF (Oct. 2025); Share of total export value: International Trade Centre; Poverty rate: World Bank (Oct. 2025); Informal employment rate: ILO; Secondary education completion rate: IDB.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Emilie Sweigart
Reading Time: 2 minutesSweigart is an editor at Americas Quarterly and a policy manager at the Americas Society/Council of the Americas
