This article is adapted from AQ’s special report on the Trump Doctrine
Brazil
PRESIDENT
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
IN OFFICE
2003–2010; Since 2023
Lula is seeking a fourth term in the October 4 general election, and while a clear opposition frontrunner has not yet emerged, potential candidates include São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas and former President Jair Bolsonaro’s son Flávio. Crime and violence will likely be top campaign issues following the police operation targeting the Comando Vermelho criminal group in Rio de Janeiro last October that left more than 120 people dead. Relations with the U.S. remain in flux: Trump imposed a 50% tariff in July, citing former President Bolsonaro’s trial for an attempted coup, prompting a strong stance from Lula that boosted the Brazilian leader’s approval. By November, Trump lifted significant tariffs on Brazilian food products, noting “initial progress” in trade talks. In January, Lula posted on social media that U.S. actions in Venezuela “cross an unacceptable line.” The World Bank recently highlighted Brazil’s progress in reducing poverty but noted that amid high and rising debt, fiscal sustainability remains a challenge.
TRENDS TO WATCH
- October general election
- Rising debt levels
- Evolving bilateral relationship with the U.S.
GDP GROWTH
INFLATION RATE
KEY FIGURES
| Population (2026, millions) | 214.1 |
| Poverty rate (2026, World Bank definition, see note below) | 20.1% |
| Unemployment rate (2026) | 7.3% |
| Informal employment rate (2024) | 36.5% |
| Secondary education completion rate (2022) | 74.1% |
ECONOMIC INDICATORS (2026 PROJECTIONS)
| GDP growth (annual % change) | 1.6% |
| Inflation rate (annual % change) | 4.0% |
| Fiscal balance (% GDP) | -7.5% |
| China’s share of total export value (2024) | 28.0% |
| U.S. share of total export value (2024) | 12.1% |
NOTES: Poverty line is $8.30 per day in 2021 PPP. Percentages rounded to nearest decimal point.
SOURCES: Presidential approval: Quaest (Dec. 2025); GDP growth: IMF (Jan. 2026); Inflation, fiscal balance, population, unemployment: IMF (Oct. 2025); Share of total export value: International Trade Centre; Poverty rate: World Bank (Oct. 2025); Informal employment rate: ILO; Secondary education completion rate: IDB.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Emilie Sweigart
Reading Time: 2 minutesSweigart is an editor at Americas Quarterly and a policy manager at the Americas Society/Council of the Americas
