Colombia goes to the polls on May 31 amid some of the worst violence the country has seen in two decades. FARC dissidents have carried out dozens of attacks in recent weeks, prompting an appeal for peace from Pope Leo XIV. In a way, the campaign has been shadowed since last year by the assassination of senator Miguel Uribe Turbay. And yet, paradoxically, President Gustavo Petro’s approval rating has risen 10 points this year. Now three candidates are vying to succeed him: Iván Cepeda, Petro’s preferred successor on the left; Paloma Valencia, a conservative senator from Álvaro Uribe’s party; and Abelardo de la Espriella, a right-wing outsider who echoes both Javier Milei and Nayib Bukele. Today on the podcast, we want to understand the outlook for Colombia. Who is most likely to make it to the second round? And what would each of the three candidates mean for the country? Our guest is Sergio Guzmán, director of Colombia Risk Analysis, speaking from Bogotá.
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Guest:
Sergio Guzmán is director and co-founder of Colombia Risks Analysis.
Host:
Brian Winter is editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly
If you would like to know more:
In Colombia’s Election, Two Conservatives Fight to Face Cepeda by Ricardo Ávila
The Resurgence of Gustavo Petro and the Colombian Left by Will Freeman
Colombia Meet the Candidates by Rich Brown
Colombia’s Bukele? Abelardo De La Espriella Surges Ahead by Ricardo Ávila
AQ Podcast | Colombia Enters a Turbulent Election Season
What to expect as the 2026 elections approach amid increasing violence and a strained relationship with the U.S.
