This article is adapted from AQ’s special report on trends to watch in Latin America in 2025
Colombia
PRESIDENT
Gustavo Petro
IN OFFICE
2022-2026
President Gustavo Petro is facing headwinds, including scandals and concerns over public safety, as attention is already shifting to the next presidential election. After Congress rejected the government’s tax reform and 2025 budget proposal last year, Petro issued the budget by decree in December. However, Petro scored a legislative
victory with the approval of his pension reform, which takes effect this July, and a decentralization bill approved in December. Other reforms are under discussion and will likely test his political capabilities again this year. Scandals have affected Petro and his inner circle, and amid corruption allegations, his second finance minister, Ricardo Bonilla, resigned in December (he denies any wrongdoing). In late 2024, Petro’s approval rating stood at 39%, compared to 62% at the start of his term. The president’s “Total Peace” strategy of negotiating ceasefires with armed groups has low levels of public support, and Colombia’s potential cocaine production rose by 53% from 2022 to 2023, according to the UNODC. The IMF forecasts that GDP growth will pick up over the next few years, reaching 2.5% in 2025, with inflation at 4.5%. Some observers predict that Petro and Trump may clash over issues related to security and drug policy, straining existing divisions in the U.S.-Colombia relationship.
| Presidential approval rating | 39% |
| Population (millions) | 52.7 |
| Homicide rate (per 100,000 people) | 25.7 |
| % who say they would like to emigrate in next three years | 30% |
| Capacity to Combat Corruption Index ranking (out of 15 Latin American countries) | 9 |
TRENDS TO WATCH
- Petro’s reform agenda
- Security strategy and relationship with the U.S.
- Candidacies ahead of 2026 presidential election
ECONOMIC INDICATORS (2025 PROJECTIONS)
| GDP (current USD, billions) | $419.3 |
| GDP (% change) | +2.5% |
| GDP per capita (current USD) | $7,895.4 |
| Inflation | 4.5% |
| Unemployment rate | 10% |
| Poverty rate (World Bank definition, see note below) | 31.4% |
| Fiscal balance (% of GDP) | -4.3% |
| FDI (2023, billions USD) | $17.4 |
| Remittances inflows (2023, billions USD) | $10.1 |
NOTE: Poverty rate is $6.85 in 2017 PPP. Pie chart indicates total value added of GDP by economic activity at current prices. Figures rounded to nearest decimal.
SOURCES: Presidential approval: La Silla Vacía (November 2024); Population, GDP and growth, inflation, unemployment: IMF World Economic Outlook (October 2024); Homicide rate: InSight Crime (2024); Emigration polling: AmericasBarometer (2023); Corruption index: AS/COA and Control Risks (2023); Trading partners: World Integrated Trade Solution (2022); GDP by economic activity: ECLAC (2023); Poverty and fiscal balance: World Bank (October 2024); FDI: UNCTAD (June 2024); Remittances: World Bank (June 2024).
