This article is adapted from AQ’s special report on the Trump Doctrine
Mexico
PRESIDENT
Claudia Sheinbaum
IN OFFICE
Since 2024
After navigating complex relations with the U.S. in her first year in office, new challenges are on the horizon for Sheinbaum in 2026. The U.S. capture of Maduro, and Trump’s comments that the U.S. may have to “do something” about cartels in Mexico, have raised concerns about potential U.S. military action, which she has repeatedly rejected. Sheinbaum has so far cooperated with the U.S. on migration and security, and citizens’ frustration over violent crime led to widespread protests last November. Bilateral relations will also be tested in the high-stakes review of the USMCA: In January, Trump said that the trade agreement was “irrelevant.” Meanwhile, Mexico-U.S. economic interdependence has increased, and Mexico recently surpassed Canada as the top buyer of U.S. goods. The IMF has noted that tariffs and trade uncertainty will continue limiting growth this year, an outlook that may dampen progress on the president’s six-year growth promotion strategy Plan México.
TRENDS TO WATCH
- Sheinbaum’s security strategy
- USMCA review starting July 1
- Tariff-related uncertainty weighing on growth
GDP GROWTH
INFLATION RATE
KEY FIGURES
| Population (2026, millions) | 134.4 |
| Poverty rate (2026, World Bank definition, see note below) | 21.6% |
| Unemployment rate (2026) | 3.1% |
| Informal employment rate (2024) | 56.4% |
| Secondary education completion rate (2022) | 64.1% |
ECONOMIC INDICATORS (2026 PROJECTIONS)
| GDP growth (annual % change) | 1.5% |
| Inflation rate (annual % change) | 3.3% |
| Fiscal balance (% GDP) | -4.1% |
| China’s share of total export value (2024) | 1.5% |
| U.S. share of total export value (2024) | 81.3% |
NOTES: Poverty line is $8.30 per day in 2021 PPP. Percentages rounded to nearest decimal point.
SOURCES: Presidential approval: El Financiero (Dec. 2025); GDP growth: IMF (Jan. 2026); Inflation, fiscal balance, population, unemployment: IMF (Oct. 2025); Share of total export value: International Trade Centre; Poverty rate: World Bank (Oct. 2025); Informal employment rate: ILO; Secondary education completion rate: IDB.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Emilie Sweigart
Reading Time: 2 minutesSweigart is an editor at Americas Quarterly and a policy manager at the Americas Society/Council of the Americas
