This article is adapted from AQ’s special report on trends to watch in Latin America in 2025
Mexico
PRESIDENT
Claudia Sheinbaum
IN OFFICE
2024-2030
President Claudia Sheinbaum will confront sizable domestic and international challenges in her first full year in office. Trump’s threat to apply 25% tariffs on Mexican imports sets the stage for confrontation not only on trade but also on immigration, organized crime and border security ahead of the 2026 USMCA review. Mexico and the U.S. are each other’s largest trading partners. At the same time, a slowing economy will test her sizable political capital (S&P slashed its GDP growth estimates to 1.2% for this year), marking a fourth consecutive year of diminishing economic performance. The IMF recently flagged that private consumption and investment are decelerating in the country, while employment growth is also slowing, factors that could erode the president’s popularity. In the early stages of her term, Sheinbaum has pursued reforms supported by her predecessor Andrés Manuel López Obrador. A judicial overhaul was approved in September, and Congress recently voted to dissolve seven independent watchdog agencies, a decision that critics say will concentrate power and diminish transparency. Sheinbaum has rolled out a security strategy that differs somewhat from AMLO’s, strengthening the National Guard, intelligence-gathering and inter-agency coordination.
| Presidential approval rating | 78% |
| Population (millions) | 132.3 |
| Homicide rate (per 100,000 people) | 23.3 |
| % who say they would like to emigrate in next three years | 14% |
| Capacity to Combat Corruption Index ranking (out of 15 Latin American countries) | 12 |
TRENDS TO WATCH
- Potential U.S. tariffs ahead of USMCA review in 2026
- Trump’s demands on migration and drugs
- Sheinbaum’s security strategy
ECONOMIC INDICATORS (2025 PROJECTIONS)
| GDP (current USD, billions) | $1,818 |
| GDP (% change) | +1.3% |
| GDP per capita (current USD) | $13,630.2 |
| Inflation | 3.8% |
| Unemployment rate | 3.3% |
| Poverty rate (World Bank definition, see note below) | 20.1% |
| Fiscal balance (% of GDP) | -3.5% |
| FDI (2023, billions USD) | $36.1 |
| Remittances inflows (2023, billions USD) | $66.2 |
NOTE: Poverty rate is $6.85 in 2017 PPP. Pie chart indicates total value added of GDP by economic activity at current prices. Figures rounded to nearest decimal.
SOURCES: Presidential approval: El Financiero (December 2024); Population, GDP and growth, inflation, unemployment: IMF World Economic Outlook (October 2024); Homicide rate: InSight Crime (2024); Emigration polling: AmericasBarometer (2023); Corruption index: AS/COA and Control Risks (2023); Trading partners: World Integrated Trade Solution (2022); GDP by economic activity: ECLAC (2023); Poverty and fiscal balance: World Bank (October 2024); FDI: UNCTAD (June 2024); Remittances: World Bank (June 2024).
