This article is adapted from AQ’s special report on trends to watch in Latin America in 2025
Guatemala
PRESIDENT
Bernardo Arévalo
IN OFFICE
2024-2028
Elected on an anti-corruption platform, President Bernardo Arévalo and his center-left Semilla Party (which holds only 23 of the 160 seats in Guatemala’s unicameral Congress) have faced strong headwinds in advancing his transparency agenda. Judicial authorities temporarily suspended Semilla during the 2023 election, and the party was suspended again in late November. Arévalo has powerful opponents in the justice system, including Attorney General Consuelo Porras, who has attempted to lift his immunity from prosecution. Porras, whose term ends in May 2026, has allegedly blocked corruption investigations and has been sanctioned by the U.S. and EU. Arévalo has proposed a bill to remove her from office. At the same time, social discontent is rising due to deteriorating infrastructure as rates of poverty, inequality and malnutrition remain high, even by regional standards. Last October, Arévalo rolled out a multi-year subsidy for first-time homebuyers projected at about $100 million in 2024, and in November he secured a legislative win as Congress passed a law aimed at punishing anti-competitive practices. Trump’s plans to deport millions of undocumented immigrants and tax remittances (which account for about 20% of the country’s GDP) may significantly affect Guatemala’s economy.
| Presidential approval rating | 54% |
| Population (millions) | 17.9 |
| Homicide rate (per 100,000 people) | 16.7 |
| % who say they would like to emigrate in next three years | 23% |
| Capacity to Combat Corruption Index ranking (out of 15 Latin American countries) | 13 |
TRENDS TO WATCH
- Tensions between executive and judicial branches
- Arévalo’s transparency agenda
- Effects from Trump migration and remittances policies
ECONOMIC INDICATORS (2025 PROJECTIONS)
| GDP (current USD, billions) | $121 |
| GDP (% change) | +3.6% |
| GDP per capita (current USD) | $6,682.4 |
| Inflation | 4.2% |
| Unemployment rate (2023) | 2.7% |
| Poverty rate (World Bank definition, see note below) | 54.3% |
| Fiscal balance (% of GDP) | -2.5% |
| FDI (2023, billions USD) | $1.6 |
| Remittances inflows (2023, billions USD) | $20 |
NOTE: Poverty rate is $6.85 in 2017 PPP. Pie chart indicates total value added of GDP by economic activity at current prices. Figures rounded to nearest decimal.
SOURCES: Presidential approval: CID Gallup (September 2024); Population, GDP and growth, inflation: IMF World Economic Outlook (October 2024); Homicide rate: InSight Crime (2024); Emigration polling: AmericasBarometer (2023); Corruption index: AS/COA and Control Risks (2023); Trading partners: World Integrated Trade Solution (2022); GDP by economic activity: ECLAC (2023); Unemployment: ILO (2023); Poverty and fiscal balance: World Bank (October 2024); FDI: UNCTAD (June 2024); Remittances: World Bank (June 2024).
