On February 9, Ecuadorians will vote in the second presidential election in as many years and will also elect the 151 members of the National Assembly. Up for reelection is President Daniel Noboa, who was elected in October 2023 to serve out the remainder of his predecessor Guillermo Lasso’s term after the former president called a snap election. The incumbent’s term runs through May. Luisa González, the runner-up from 2023 who has close ties to former President Rafael Correa, is polling just behind Noboa, making a second round on April 13 likely, according to some analysts.
As the election nears, security remains the top issue on voters’ minds, with unemployment and the economy also among their main concerns. This page includes candidates with voter intention above 25%, according to January polling from Comunicaliza, listed here in alphabetical order by last name. We will occasionally update this page to reflect developments in the campaigns.
AQ also asked a dozen nonpartisan experts on Ecuador to help us identify where each candidate stands on two spectrums: left versus right on economic matters, and a more personalistic leadership style versus an emphasis on institutions. We’ve published the average response, with a caveat: Platforms evolve, and so do candidates.
Luisa González
47, president of Revolución Ciudadana
Movimiento Revolución Ciudadana
“We cannot allow any more improvisation; we cannot play with the lives of 18 million Ecuadorians.”
HOW SHE GOT HERE
González, a Rafael Correa loyalist, first ran for president in 2023 and had the highest vote share in the first round, but lost in the second round with 48.17% of votes compared to Noboa’s 51.83%. A month later, González was elected president of Correa’s left-wing Revolución Ciudadana (RC) movement. She entered electoral politics in 2021, when she was elected to the National Assembly following a long public sector career, particularly during the Correa administration (2007-17).
WHY SHE MIGHT WIN
Ecuadorians that are frustrated with the Noboa administration’s modest progress in reducing homicides–and last year’s electricity blackouts of up to 14 hours per day–may seek a change by casting their ballots for González. Correísmo has a loyal electoral base, and amid low economic growth (the IMF forecasts 1.2% GDP expansion in 2025 and just 0.3% in 2024), González’s campaign promise to “revive” Ecuador may appeal to voters.
WHY SHE MIGHT LOSE
Correa remains a polarizing figure in Ecuador, and González’s ties with the former leader could alienate some voters. Her approval rating stands at 41%, 12 points behind Noboa’s.
WHO SUPPORTS HER
González’s running mate is Diego Borja, an economist who served in Correa’s government. In this election, RC is running as part of a coalition with the center-left RETO movement.
WHAT SHE WOULD DO
González’s campaign is based on reminding voters of the boom days of correísmo, when the economy grew, pushed by oil revenues, and poverty was reduced. Her program focuses on reigniting Ecuador’s economy, as well as job creation and investments in healthcare and education. González proposes bringing back the Ministry for Security Coordination and the Ministry of Justice, investing in technology to improve investigations and using a preventative and human rights-based approach to security. She favors public investment in renewable energy and public management of the country’s hydroelectric structure. González’s program speaks of promoting a culture of ethics in state institutions, strengthening the justice system and proposing legislation to regulate lobbying.
IDEOLOGY
Daniel Noboa
37, president
Acción Democrática Nacional
“This is not only an election, it is a fight against inequality, the past, drug trafficking, crime and indolence.”
HOW HE GOT HERE
Noboa, a relative newcomer to politics, served in the National Assembly from 2021-23 prior to being elected president. In office since November 2023, he has prioritized fighting organized crime, declaring states of emergency and an “internal armed conflict” in January 2024, as the country experienced a surge in violence.
WHY HE MIGHT WIN
Voters signaled early support for the incumbent’s tough-on-crime stance, backing a security referendum Noboa called in April that included permitting the military to patrol the streets and extending prison sentences, among other measures. Security-focused presidential hopeful Jan Topic was barred from running in November over an alleged conflict of interest, excluding a candidate that might have siphoned votes from Noboa.
WHY HE MIGHT LOSE
His approval rating hit over 80% a year ago, but fell to 53% in late January, a drop some analysts attribute to 2024’s blackouts amid a historic drought, as well as the public security situation. According to the government, homicides decreased by 16% in 2024 compared to 2023, but the rate remains above 2022 levels. Human Rights Watch has reported that security forces have engaged in “serious human rights violations” over the past year.
WHO SUPPORTS HIM
Noboa’s decision to sideline his current vice president has generated criticism among some legal experts. His 2025 running mate is María José Pinto, the head of a government agency tasked with addressing child malnutrition. Business elites and opponents of correísmo may maintain their support for Noboa.
WHAT HE WOULD DO
Noboa’s program is one of continuity, focusing on public safety, job creation, energy and access to education. The president has acknowledged that crime rates are still high and plans to design targeted policies to counter organized crime, illegal mining, narcotrafficking, and human trafficking. He has proposed increasing investment in renewable sources and optimizing consumption to address the energy crisis. Noboa declared in January that Ecuador would be willing to sell oil to countries that currently get it from Venezuela in case sanctions are imposed against Nicolás Maduro’s government. He aims to focus job creation on young people and women and has said that this will be “the year of emblematic construction” of infrastructure projects. Noboa has pledged to improve the system of government acquisitions as way to fight corruption.
IDEOLOGY
ABOUT THE AUTHORS
Emilie Sweigart
Reading Time: < 1 minuteSweigart is an editor at Americas Quarterly and a policy manager at the Americas Society/Council of the Americas
Luiza Franco
Reading Time: < 1 minuteFranco is an editor, writer and podcast producer at AQ.
