This article is adapted from AQ’s special report on trends to watch in Latin America in 2025
Argentina
PRESIDENT
Javier Milei
IN OFFICE
2023-2027
While Argentina’s economy emerged from a recession in the third quarter of 2024, the country faces renewed challenges, with midterm legislative elections on the horizon. After implementing economic “shock therapy” in his first year in office, President Javier Milei needs to find access to international funding, as capital controls may dampen the recovery, and fight against inflation. Monthly inflation followed a downward trend in 2024 and annual inflation registered 166% in November. With chronically diminished reserves, Argentina is scheduled to make a $3 billion payment in interest to the IMF and bond payments are due in January and July, close to $4.3 billion in each instance. In a geopolitical reversal, Milei was expected to visit China in January for a joint summit hosted by the Asian country and the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC). Argentina renewed a $5 billion portion of its currency swap with China in June, and in September Milei described China as a “very interesting trade partner.” The IMF projects 5% economic growth and annual inflation of 62.7% for 2025. If sustained, Milei’s relative popularity may help secure him more support in October’s elections. An ardent Trump supporter, Milei has stated that he will seek a free trade agreement with the U.S.
| Presidential approval rating | 54% |
| Population (millions) | 47.2 |
| Homicide rate (per 100,000 people) | 4.4 |
| % who say they would like to emigrate in next three years | 25% |
| Capacity to Combat Corruption Index ranking (out of 15 Latin American countries) | 7 |
TRENDS TO WATCH
- Argentina’s economic recovery
- Legislative midterm elections in October
- Bond and IMF payments
ECONOMIC INDICATORS (2025 PROJECTIONS)
| GDP (current USD, billions) | $574.2 |
| GDP (% change) | +5% |
| GDP per capita (current USD) | $12,054 |
| Inflation | 62.7% |
| Unemployment rate | 7.6% |
| Poverty rate (World Bank definition, see note below) | 15.6% |
| Fiscal balance (% of GDP) | +0.9% |
| FDI (2023, billions USD) | $22.9 |
| Remittances inflows (2023, billions USD) | $1 |
NOTE: Poverty rate is $6.85 in 2017 PPP. Pie chart indicates total value added of GDP by economic activity at current prices. Figures rounded to nearest decimal.
SOURCES: Presidential approval: Universidad de San Andrés Encuesta de Satisfacción Política y Opinión Pública (November 2024); Population, GDP and growth, inflation, unemployment: IMF World Economic Outlook (October 2024); Homicide rate: Ministerio de Seguridad (2023); Emigration polling: AmericasBarometer (2023); Corruption index: AS/COA and Control Risks (2023); Trading partners: World Integrated Trade Solution (2022); GDP by economic activity: ECLAC (2023); Poverty and fiscal balance: World Bank (October 2024); FDI: UNCTAD (June 2024); Remittances: World Bank (June 2024).
