This article is adapted from AQ’s special report on the Trump Doctrine
Argentina
PRESIDENT
Javier Milei
IN OFFICE
Since 2023
Buoyed by a larger-than-expected midterm election victory and a $20 billion currency swap deal with the Trump administration, Milei starts 2026 with significant tailwinds. His La Libertad Avanza party has more than twice its previous share of congressional seats, but it still lacks a majority. To further open Argentina’s economy and implement additional spending cuts and deregulation, Milei will need to build a broader political coalition. Some say inflation could reach single digits by 2027, and the IMF has noted Argentina’s continued progress during its stabilization program. However, the lender has called on Argentina to rebuild its reserves. A credible reserve building plan will likely require a 10 to 15% cheaper Argentine peso, analysts at Morgan Stanley argued in a November 2025 report. The central bank has loosened restrictions on the peso’s trading band in a new effort to accumulate international reserves, and Argentina faces debt repayments totaling almost $20 billion in 2026.
TRENDS TO WATCH
- Milei’s reform agenda
- Economic recovery
- U.S. rescue package and trade deal
GDP GROWTH
INFLATION RATE
KEY FIGURES
| Population (2026, millions) | 48.1 |
| Poverty rate (2026, World Bank definition, see note below) | 14.5% |
| Unemployment rate (2026) | 6.6% |
| Informal employment rate (2024) | 51.6% |
| Secondary education completion rate (2023) | 74.5% |
ECONOMIC INDICATORS (2026 PROJECTIONS)
| GDP growth (annual % change) | 4.0% |
| Inflation rate (annual % change) | 16.4% |
| Fiscal balance (% GDP) | 0.3% |
| China’s share of total export value (2024) | 7.5% |
| U.S. share of total export value (2024) | 8.1% |
NOTES: Poverty line is $8.30 per day in 2021 PPP. Percentages rounded to nearest decimal point.
SOURCES: Presidential approval: Universidad de San Andrés Encuesta de Satisfacción Política y Opinión Pública (Nov. 2025); GDP growth: IMF (Jan. 2026); Inflation, fiscal balance, population, unemployment: IMF (Oct. 2025); Share of total export value: International Trade Centre; Poverty rate: World Bank (Oct. 2025); Informal employment rate: ILO; Secondary education completion rate: IDB.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Emilie Sweigart
Reading Time: 2 minutesSweigart is an editor at Americas Quarterly and a policy manager at the Americas Society/Council of the Americas
