In the August 17 general elections, Bolivians will vote for president, vice president, and all seats in both houses of the legislature. In the race for president, if no candidate secures more than 50% of the vote or a 10-percentage-point advantage over the rest of the field, the two leading contenders will head to a runoff scheduled for October 19. The presidential and legislative winners will all take office on November 8.
The country’s deep economic crisis is top-of-mind for voters as inflation, fuel shortages, and a lack of formal employment opportunities continue to weigh on the public. President Luis Arce has opted not to run for reelection, and a Constitutional Court ruling in May barred former President Evo Morales from participating.
The candidates polling over 10% in a July Ipsos Ciesmori survey are included below in alphabetical order by last name. AQ asked a dozen nonpartisan experts on Bolivia to help us identify where each candidate stands on two spectrums: left versus right on economic matters, and personalistic versus institutionalist on leadership style. We’ve published the averages of their responses, with a caveat: Platforms evolve, and so do candidates. We will occasionally update this page to reflect developments in the campaigns.
Samuel Doria Medina
66, business magnate and former minister of planning
Alianza Unidad
“We have the best team and a serious plan to stabilize the economy in 100 days.”
HOW HE GOT HERE
Doria is one of the country’s wealthiest businessmen and is running for president for the fourth time. He led Soboce, the country’s biggest cement manufacturer, from 1987 until he sold his controlling stake for around $300 million in 2014 to mount a presidential bid. He has led other large companies and built Bolivia’s tallest skyscraper. A longtime centrist and social democrat, he was minister of planning (1991-93) in the administration of President Jaime Paz Zamora. In the 2020 election, he was incumbent President Jeanine Áñez’s running mate before they dropped out of the race amid poor polling. He is now at the head of the largest opposition coalition, Unidad, which includes prominent groups like Creemos, backed by Luis Fernando Camacho, and Comunidad Ciudadana, led by former President Carlos Mesa.
WHY HE MIGHT WIN
Given President Arce’s lack of popular support, the rifts within the ruling MAS party, and the country’s economic straits, many voters appear ready to support a moderate opposition candidate. As a centrist, Doria Medina may attract former MAS supporters who are looking for an alternative outside of the conservative right. His background in business allows him to maintain that he is a political outsider, and his track record of entrepreneurial success lends credibility to his claims that he can fix the economy. He has shown with Unidad that he can lead a coalition, and recently won the backing of Marcelo Claure, Bolivia’s richest man.
WHY HE MIGHT LOSE
Some voters might prefer other moderate candidates with more government experience. Doria Medina’s reputation as a perennial presidential candidate may be detrimental to his outsider image. He could also be overtaken by candidates further to the right, who have adopted a less conciliatory and more aggressive stance toward the MAS and the status quo.
WHO SUPPORTS HIM
He has broad name recognition and appears to be drawing support from both longtime moderate MAS opponents and voters who have more recently soured on the ruling party. His supporters tend to believe that he is the opposition candidate most likely to unite enough of the country behind him to win. Doria Medina’s strongest support comes from the middle classes, with the poorest individuals tending to lean toward leftist candidates and the richest tending to lean further to the right. As the candidate of the broadest opposition coalition, he has won endorsements from public intellectuals and business leaders alike.
WHAT HE WOULD DO
Like all leading candidates, he plans to reduce fuel and other subsidies to cut government spending. Doria Medina emphasizes transparency, incentives for small businesses, and reductions in taxes and red tape for the private sector. He favors shutting down certain state-owned businesses and deals with the IMF and other multilateral organizations to liberalize the economy more broadly, while also supporting certain poverty-reduction spending. His party platform vows not to cut cash transfer programs.
IDEOLOGY
Andrónico Rodríguez
36, Senate president
Alianza Popular
“I want to promote a new way of doing politics in which dialogue, compromise and social peace come first.”
HOW HE GOT HERE
Andrónico, as he is popularly known, has been a longtime MAS member and president of the Senate since 2020, when he first won public office. He hails from Cochabamba, the cocalero organizing stronghold where his father was a Quechua campesino leader and his mother worked for a union. After studying political science, Rodríguez worked his way up the ranks of Bolivia’s biggest coca growers’ association, eventually replacing Evo Morales as its president in 2019. In this organization, he was Morales’s protégé and close confidant, remaining as the federation’s leader during his presidency (2006-19). He agreed to run for president with the leftist Alianza Popular coalition in May.
WHY HE MIGHT WIN
Grassroots movements that support the MAS could largely back Rodríguez. Other MAS-affiliated candidates are polling in the single digits, and Rodríguez may be able to attract MAS supporters while also appealing to other voters as a fresh face less associated with the establishment. Rodríguez’s closer alignment with the Morales wing of the MAS over Arce’s also distances him somewhat from the unpopular incumbent. For now, Morales continues to criticize Rodríguez and withhold his support, as Rodríguez insists that he should be allowed to run for president.
WHY HE MIGHT LOSE
Due to his association with the MAS, Rodríguez may fall victim to the general anti-incumbent mood amid the country’s economic decline under Arce’s government. Some Morales supporters may refuse to vote for him, and other MAS voters may align with other candidates. Recent protests in support of Morales’ attempt to run for president have in some cases turned violent. Rodríguez lacks executive experience in government and has thus far appeared only sparingly in the media and candidate forums.
WHO SUPPORTS HIM
Rodríguez has support from the major campesino organizing fronts he has interacted with throughout his career. He is likely to draw votes from rural Bolivians who are often undercounted in the polls. As the youngest candidate, he may also appeal to voters who seek an alternative to established political figures.
WHAT HE WOULD DO
Rodríguez has said he would gradually reduce fuel and other subsidies, in line with his Alianza Popular party’s “intelligent austerity” proposals, and try to reduce government spending by prioritizing the most disadvantaged sectors while cutting down on bureaucracy, redundancy, and waste. To inject dollars into the economy, he has said he favors seeking loans from groups like BRICS over traditional lenders like the IMF. He also aims to boost exports by offering incentives to the private sector, but would also maintain strong government involvement in key areas like mining and tourism, as well as push import substitution through tariffs on certain sectors.
IDEOLOGY
Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga
65, former president
Alianza Libre
“The first thing I will do when I get to the Palace of Government is return stability to the country.”
HOW HE GOT HERE
“Tuto” Quiroga served as president from 2001-2, and has run for president three times before, most recently in 2020, dropping out before the election amid poor polling. He was finance minister under Zamora for eight months in 1992, and five years later, he became the country’s youngest-ever vice president in the administration of President Hugo Bánzer. Bánzer was a controversial figure who had been a right-wing military dictator from 1971, when he led a coup d’état, until he was deposed in 1978. In 2001, Bánzer resigned due to ill health, and Quiroga completed Bánzer’s term but opted not to run for reelection. He has worked for major Bolivian mining and banking firms as well as the IMF and the World Bank. He is running with the Libre coalition after leaving a broader opposition group that largely opted to support Doria Medina.
WHY HE MIGHT WIN
Quiroga is the main standard-bearer for Bolivia’s right wing in this election, and he has long warned that the MAS’ economic populism would lead to the kind of fiscal and economic crunch that has come to pass. He may be able to capitalize on widespread discontent with how Arce and the MAS have handled the economy by offering the sharpest contrast to the ruling party among all leading candidates.
WHY HE MIGHT LOSE
Quiroga didn’t gain traction when he ran for president in 2020 and may struggle to attract moderates, limiting his appeal beyond his conservative base. His close association with Bánzer and the unpopular record of Bánzer’s presidency could alienate some voters.
WHO SUPPORTS HIM
As a long-standing and vocal critic of the MAS, Quiroga is popular among the country’s most conservative voters and many of those disillusioned by the Arce government. He appeals to voters who roundly reject the MAS and its economic project, and who seek a return to pre-2005 Bolivia. Quiroga has strong support among the upper classes, especially in La Paz, and major players in the private sector.
WHAT HE WOULD DO
Quiroga would aim to dramatically shrink the government’s role in the economy and its spending. He advocates an IMF rescue package and favors stricter austerity measures than other candidates. Quiroga has also spoken of digitalizing government to make it more efficient and transparent, and said he would give every adult in the country a “popular property title” worth $1,500, as a symbolic share of the country’s natural resources that can be used to access loans.
IDEOLOGY
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Rich Brown
Reading Time: < 1 minuteBrown is an editor and production manager at Americas Quarterly.
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