This article is adapted from AQ’s special report on trends to watch in Latin America in 2025
Venezuela
PRESIDENT
Nicolás Maduro
IN OFFICE
2013-2031
Nicolás Maduro began a third presidential term on January 10, despite demonstrations, international recriminations and overwhelming evidence that opposition candidate Edmundo González won July’s presidential election by a landslide. Following the contest, Maduro’s government imprisoned almost 2,000 citizens, likely giving Venezuela the highest number of political prisoners in the Western Hemisphere. Venezuela has had a surge in out-migration, adding to the 7.8 million refugees and migrants that have fled the country’s economic and humanitarian crisis over the past decade. Maduro said that Trump’s second term would mark a “new start,” and some analysts predict that Trump may move away from his former “maximum pressure” strategy toward Venezuela and seek a deal to stem migration. With diminished international recognition, Maduro’s regime faces limited room to navigate expected lower global oil prices and a harsher economic environment marked by declining investment and lack of access to capital markets. Last October, Venezuela failed to join the BRICS bloc after Brazil vetoed its accession to the group. The IMF projects 3% growth for 2024 and 2025 as total oil production recovers, while inflation has decelerated more than some analysts anticipated, likely ending 2024 at around 60%.
| Population (millions) | 26.5 |
| Homicide rate (per 100,000 people) | 26.8 |
| Capacity to Combat Corruption Index ranking (out of 15 Latin American countries) | 15 |
TRENDS TO WATCH
- Political repression and rising out-migration
- Recovering oil production
- Venezuela policy under Trump
ECONOMIC INDICATORS (2025 PROJECTIONS)
| GDP (current USD, billions) | $110 |
| GDP (% change) | +3% |
| GDP per capita (current USD) | $4,121.9 |
| Inflation | 71.7% |
| Unemployment rate (2023) | 5.5% |
| Poverty rate (2023, ENCOVI definition) | 51.9% |
| Fiscal balance (2024, % of GDP) | -12.6% |
| FDI (2023, billions USD) | $0.7 |
| Remittances inflows (2023, billions USD) | $2.5 |
NOTE: Pie chart indicates GDP by economic activity at constant 1997 prices. Figures rounded to nearest decimal.
SOURCES: Population, GDP and growth, inflation: IMF World Economic Outlook (October 2024); Homicide rate: InSight Crime (2024); Corruption index: AS/COA and Control Risks (2023); Trading partners: Observatory of Economic Complexity (2022); GDP by economic activity: Calculations based on data from Banco Central de Venezuela (2018, latest year available); Unemployment: ILO (2023); Poverty: Encuesta Nacional sobre Condiciones de Vida (2023); Fiscal balance: Universidad Católica Andrés Bello Informe de Coyuntura Venezuela (April 2024); FDI: UNCTAD (June 2024); Remittances: Ecoanalítica (2023).
