This article is adapted from AQ’s special report on the Trump Doctrine
Panama
PRESIDENT
José Raúl Mulino
IN OFFICE
Since 2024
Following tensions over the Canal last year, in early 2026 Mulino signaled improving U.S. ties, stating that “Panama moved toward a relationship of respect, restored trust, joint efforts, and friendship.” In 2025, the Mulino administration signed a security agreement with the U.S. and exited China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison announced it would sell two ports at the Canal to a BlackRock-led consortium, a deal China is threatening to block. The Panama Canal Authority plans to spend $8.5 billion on strategic projects over the next 10 years, including a new reservoir, gas pipeline and two new port concessions. Last March’s pension reform, while praised by the IMF, was met with anti- government protests and strikes from construction and teachers’ unions and banana pickers. Economic growth is recovering after the $10 billion Cobre Panamá mine’s closure in 2023, but is forecasted to remain below pre-pandemic levels in the medium term.
TRENDS TO WATCH
- Canal’s new infrastructure
- Future of the Cobre Panamá mine
- Bilateral relations with the U.S.
GDP GROWTH
INFLATION RATE
KEY FIGURES
| Population (2026, millions) | 4.6 |
| Poverty rate (2026, World Bank definition, see note below) | 19.2% |
| Unemployment rate (2026) | 7.7% |
| Informal employment rate (2024) | 58.7% |
| Secondary education completion rate (2022) | 73.9% |
ECONOMIC INDICATORS (2026 PROJECTIONS)
| GDP growth (annual % change) | 4.0% |
| Inflation rate (annual % change) | 2.0% |
| Fiscal balance (% GDP) | -3.5% |
| China’s share of total export value (2024) | 2.0% |
| U.S. share of total export value (2024) | 8.8% |
NOTES: Poverty line is $8.30 per day in 2021 PPP. Percentages rounded to nearest decimal point.
SOURCES: GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, population, unemployment: IMF (Oct. 2025); Share of total export value: International Trade Centre; Poverty rate: World Bank (Oct. 2025); Informal employment rate: ILO; Secondary education completion rate: IDB.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Emilie Sweigart
Reading Time: 2 minutesSweigart is an editor at Americas Quarterly and a policy manager at the Americas Society/Council of the Americas
