This article is adapted from AQ’s special report on trends to watch in Latin America in 2025
Dominican Republic
PRESIDENT
Luis Abinader
IN OFFICE
2020-2028
President Luis Abinader is a popular pro-business conservative focused on fighting graft and bolstering economic growth as violence escalates in neighboring Haiti. Elected on an anti-corruption platform in 2020, Abinader won reelection with 57% of votes last May. His Partido Revolucionario Moderno and allies secured 60% of votes in last February’s municipal elections and have a wide majority in both houses of Congress. Abinader’s administration has taken a tough stance on Haiti’s crisis, constructing a $120 million border wall and announcing a goal of deporting Haitians living illegally in the Dominican Republic, at a rate of 10,000 per week. Abinader has called on the international community to provide additional assistance, and in December, he said that the Kenya-led security mission in Haiti has not been implemented as planned. The Dominican Republic is one of the region’s fastest-growing economies, with 5% growth forecasted for 2025. The IMF has called for a comprehensive fiscal reform to attract more investment, boost revenues, and achieve investment-grade status. Abinader introduced a fiscal reform bill last October, but following protests and criticism he withdrew it later that month, citing a lack of consensus. The country will host the next Summit of the Americas in Punta Cana this December.
| Presidential approval rating | 69% |
| Population (millions) | 10.8 |
| Homicide rate (per 100,000 people) | 11.5 |
| % who say they would like to emigrate in next three years | 40% |
| Capacity to Combat Corruption Index ranking (out of 15 Latin American countries) | 5 |
TRENDS TO WATCH
- Fiscal consolidation challenge
- Policy toward Haiti
- Summit of the Americas in December
ECONOMIC INDICATORS (2025 PROJECTIONS)
| GDP (current USD, billions) | $135.5 |
| GDP (% change) | +5% |
| GDP per capita (current USD) | $12,451.9 |
| Inflation | 4.5% |
| Unemployment rate | 6% |
| Poverty rate (World Bank definition, see note below) | 16.9% |
| Fiscal balance (% of GDP) | -2.9% |
| FDI (2023, billions USD) | $4.4 |
| Remittances inflows (2023, billions USD) | $10.6 |
NOTE: Poverty rate is $6.85 in 2017 PPP. Pie chart indicates total value added of GDP by economic activity at current prices. Figures rounded to nearest decimal.
SOURCES: Presidential approval: CID Gallup (September 2024); Population, GDP and growth, inflation, unemployment: IMF World Economic Outlook (October 2024); Homicide rate: Insight Crime (2024); Emigration polling: AmericasBarometer (2023); Corruption index: AS/COA and Control Risks (2023); Trading partners: World Integrated Trade Solution (2022); GDP by economic activity: ECLAC (2023); Poverty and fiscal balance: World Bank (October 2024); FDI: UNCTAD (June 2024); Remittances: World Bank (June 2024).
