This article is adapted from AQ’s special report on trends to watch in Latin America in 2025
Guyana
PRESIDENT
Irfaan Ali
IN OFFICE
2020-2025
The world’s fastest-growing economy, Guyana, is slated to hold general elections in November, and it is widely expected that President Irfaan Ali will be reelected for a new five-year term after a contentious vote in 2020. Enjoying the oil wealth to fund broad government spending on infrastructure and social programs, Ali’s People’s Progressive Party/Civic (PPP/C), may gain a more decisive majority in parliament from the current 33 of 65 seats. Leaders from civil society have been pushing to hold a referendum to renegotiate the nation’s production-sharing agreement with the ExxonMobil-led consortium before the elections, but it’s unclear if the three main political parties will agree on the matter. Poverty levels remain high. Last October, Ali announced measures to distribute part of Guyana’s oil wealth, providing one-off $1,000 cash payments to each household, free university tuition, and minimum wage increases. After 44% GDP growth in 2024, the IMF predicts a 14% expansion this year. This would boost nominal GDP to $24.5 billion, a 410% increase compared to 2018, before Guyana’s oil boom. With the globe’s highest level of oil reserves per capita, crude production is currently at 650,000 barrels per day (bpd), and several additional projects are expected to raise output to 1.4 million bpd.
| Population (millions) | 0.8 |
| Homicide rate (per 100,000 people) | 19.7 |
| % who say they would like to emigrate in next three years | 31% |
| World Justice Project Rule of Law Index ranking (out of 142 countries) | 77 |
TRENDS TO WATCH
- November general elections
- Production-sharing agreement (PSA)
- Public investments
ECONOMIC INDICATORS (2025 PROJECTIONS)
| GDP (current USD, billions) | $24.5 |
| GDP (% change) | +14.4% |
| GDP per capita (current USD) | $30,650.1 |
| Inflation | 4.5% |
| Unemployment rate (2023) | 12.4% |
| Poverty rate (2019, World Bank definition, see note below) | 48.4% |
| Fiscal balance (% of GDP) | -14.7% |
| FDI (2023, billions USD) | $7.2 |
| Remittances inflows (2023, billions USD) | $0.5 |
NOTE: Poverty rate is $5.50 in 2011 PPP. Pie chart indicates total value added of GDP by economic activity at current prices. Fiscal balance refers to share of non-oil GDP. Figures rounded to nearest decimal.
SOURCES: Population, GDP and growth, inflation, IMF World Economic Outlook (October 2024); Homicide rate: InSight Crime (2024); Emigration polling: AmericasBarometer (2021); Rule of Law Index: World Justice Project (2024); Trading partners: World Integrated Trade Solution (2022); GDP by economic activity: ECLAC (2022); Unemployment: ILO (2023); Poverty: World Bank; Fiscal balance: World Bank (October 2024); FDI: UNCTAD (June 2024); Remittances: World Bank (June 2024).
