This article is adapted from AQ’s special report on trends to watch in Latin America in 2025
Ecuador
PRESIDENT
Daniel Noboa
IN OFFICE
2023-2025
President Daniel Noboa has made combating organized crime his top priority and faces an increasingly competitive election on February 9 amid a challenging security and economic landscape. The scion of a powerful family, he won a snap election in October 2023 to complete the remainder of his predecessor’s term, which ends in May. As gang violence escalated, Noboa declared an “internal armed conflict” in January 2024, deployed the military to take on gangs, and ordered the construction of a new maximum-security prison. Homicides have dropped slightly during his term, but remain above 2022 levels. To generate more resources, Noboa increased the value-added tax by 3 percentage points and reduced subsidies for low-octane gasoline, but economic growth remains slow. The IMF forecasts 0.3% GDP expansion for 2024 and 1.2% this year, and in May, the lender approved a $4 billion deal to help stabilize the economy. Noboa’s approval ratings declined ahead of the election, where his main rival is again correísta candidate Luisa González, who lost in the second round in 2023. Droughts in 2024 led to planned blackouts, which generated losses of about $12 million per hour, according to estimates from private sector groups, and may diminish Noboa’s chances. If needed, a presidential runoff will be held on April 13.
| Presidential approval rating | 47% |
| Population (millions) | 18 |
| Homicide rate (per 100,000 people) | 44.5 |
| % who say they would like to emigrate in next three years | 39% |
| Capacity to Combat Corruption Index ranking (out of 15 Latin American countries) | 10 |
TRENDS TO WATCH
- Presidential and legislative elections in February
- Fight against organized crime
- Drought and electricity crisis
ECONOMIC INDICATORS (2025 PROJECTIONS)
| GDP (current USD, billions) | $125.7 |
| GDP (% change) | +1.2% |
| GDP per capita (current USD) | $6,941 |
| Inflation | 2.2% |
| Unemployment rate | 4% |
| Poverty rate (World Bank definition, see note below) | 29.2% |
| Fiscal balance (% of GDP) | -1.5% |
| FDI (2023, billions USD) | $0.4 |
| Remittances inflows (2023, billions USD) | $5.5 |
NOTE: Poverty rate is $6.85 in 2017 PPP. Pie chart indicates total value added of GDP by economic activity at current prices. Figures rounded to nearest decimal.
SOURCES: Presidential approval: CID Gallup (September 2024); Population, GDP and growth, inflation, unemployment: IMF World Economic Outlook (October 2024); Homicide rate: InSight Crime (2024); Emigration polling: AmericasBarometer (2023); Corruption index: AS/COA and Control Risks (2023); Trading partners: World Integrated Trade Solution (2022); GDP by economic activity: ECLAC (2023); Poverty and fiscal balance: World Bank (October 2024); FDI: UNCTAD (June 2024); Remittances: World Bank (June 2024).
