With crime and the high cost of living among voters’ top concerns, Uruguayans voted on October 27 for president and Congress and on a controversial pension plebiscite. Former mayor of Canelones department Yamandú Orsi, of the leftist Frente Amplio coalition, placed first with 44% of votes but did not secure a wide enough margin to avoid a November 24 runoff with Álvaro Delgado of the governing center-right Partido Nacional, according to local media.
Delgado, a former chief of Cabinet to President Luis Lacalle Pou, clinched 27% of the vote and beat out lawyer Andrés Ojeda of the center-right Partido Colorado, who finished third with 16%. The Frente Amplio is set to hold a majority in the Senate, according to projections by pollster Usina de Percepción Ciudadana.
Uruguayans also voted on two plebiscites to reform the constitution: one to restore nighttime police raids and the other, a wide-ranging reform of the nation’s pension system. Neither plebiscite was approved. Orsi, Delgado, and much of Uruguay’s political establishment had opposed the social security reform.
AQ asked analysts to share their reactions and perspectives.
Amparo Mercader
Board member, Global Americans
The first round showed a strong preference for political and policy stability in the presidential race, while voters rejected a social security reform plebiscite. Álvaro Delgado, who served as President Lacalle Pou’s chief of staff, performed better than polls had expected. He benefits from the outgoing president’s popularity and his reputation for reliable governance, notably during the pandemic. Delgado’s steady approach appeals to centrist voters. His main challenge now is to maintain the governing coalition’s voters and expand his appeal to those who voted for smaller parties or decided to leave their ballots blank.
Yamandú Orsi, former President Mujica’s protégé, will aim to attract centrist support with the private sector economist Gabriel Oddone as his proposed finance minister. However, Orsi underperformed in the first round, and voters will question if he will lead decisively or be swayed by more radical factions in the party, some of whom backed the nationalization of the pension system.
The campaign for the November 24 runoff will focus on technical debates over policies. However, the takeaway from this election is that Uruguay’s robust party system is alive and well, which is the linchpin of its exemplary democracy (one of only three full democracies in the Americas, according to The Economist Intelligence Unit). Notably, in the losing candidates’ self-critical speeches, each acknowledged democracy as the true victor.
Another key outcome was the convincing defeat of a social security reform referendum, which aimed to reverse the current government’s pension reforms, and would have lowered the retirement age. Among the most controversial elements of the pension plebiscite was the nationalization of private pension fund administrators, known as AFAPs. Supporters argued that getting rid of the AFAPs would promote social equity, while opponents cautioned it would undermine Uruguay’s fiscal stability and hard-fought credibility with markets.
Jennifer Pribble
Professor of political science and global studies, University of Richmond
Uruguay’s election results offer a welcome break from the anti-systemic dynamics and autocratic creep that have characterized much of the region in recent years. The results reveal a stable party system and high levels of voter engagement, and an electorate that is committed to democracy and to sustaining robust social welfare programs.
The center-left Frente Amplio, Uruguay’s largest political party, took a majority of seats in the Senate. The incumbent center-right National Party decreased its vote share, but confirmed its status as the largest party in Uruguay’s conservative Coalición Republicana. The coalition as a whole will likely control the lower house.
Uruguayans also voted on two referenda, both of which were rejected by more than 60% of the electorate. The first would have increased police powers to fight narcotrafficking. The measure’s rejection stands out in a region where iron-fist policies have grown increasingly popular recently. Though security was a top issue for voters, the outcome suggests that Uruguayans want to address crime and violence with programs that align more closely with deeply held democratic norms.
The second referendum called for reducing the retirement age and eliminating private pension funds. None of the country’s major political parties supported the measure, citing potentially devastating economic and pension sustainability effects. It was unclear, however, whether voters would heed those warnings or support the populist initiative.
Sunday’s results reveal a stable electorate with solid ties to the country’s most established political parties. Voters showed little appetite for anti-systemic demands, strong support for democracy, and a commitment to the long-term sustainability of Uruguay’s celebrated welfare state.
Rafael Piñeiro Rodríguez
Professor of political science, Universidad Católica del Uruguay
The October 27 elections once again demonstrated the stability of Uruguay’s institutionalized party system, which sets it apart from the rest of the region. The center-left coalition, Frente Amplio, increased its vote share compared to the 2019 elections. At the same time, the center-right parties of the governing coalition led by current President Lacalle Pou endured a setback in comparison to the previous elections. The results show great parity between the center-right and the center-left.
The second round of the presidential election on November 24 is an open contest. However, the Frente Amplio candidate is the frontrunner. Whoever emerges victorious in the runoff will have a complex governing scenario, making it harder for him to move his legislative agenda forward.
Uruguayans also voted on two plebiscites aimed at introducing changes to the constitution. One proposed allowing nighttime home raids by the police, while the other sought to amend the pension system in response to the reforms implemented by the Lacalle Pou government. Neither initiative garnered the required majority, but the pension referendum, supported by labor unions and other social organizations, achieved higher electoral support than anticipated, considering that the initiative was only endorsed by some factions of the Frente Amplio.
Verónica Pérez Bentancur
Adjunct professor of political science, Universidad de la República, Uruguay
Uruguay’s Sunday elections revealed three key aspects about the nation’s electorate. First, the Frente Amplio (FA), the historic center-left party that ruled from 2005 to 2020, emerged again as the most-voted party. While it still has to capture all the voters to the left of the political spectrum as it did in the past, the Frente Amplio is undoubtedly Latin America’s most vital and consolidated left-wing party organization.
The FA secured a majority in the Senate but fell short in the House of Representatives. According to preliminary results, the FA had 48 deputies, while the ruling center-right coalition led by Partido Nacional garnered 49. A new radical (but conservative) leftist party, Identidad Soberana (IS), captured the remaining two. Its leader opposes the 2030 climate agenda, criticizes so-called “gender ideology,” and led an anti-vaccine movement during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The radical right-wing party Cabildo Abierto, which surprisingly received 11.8% of the votes in 2019, significantly reduced its legislative caucus, obtaining even fewer votes than IS and securing just two seats in the lower house. Unlike other Latin American countries, the radical right is not consolidated as a political option in Uruguay.
Along with the national elections, two plebiscites were held to modify the constitution, although both failed. One sought to eliminate the private individual savings system (AFAPs) and established 60 as the retirement age (Lacalle Pou’s government had raised the retirement age to 65). The second, which sought to modify an article of the constitution that currently prohibits nighttime police raids, was a punitive amendment supported by the center-right parties. This is the third time Uruguayan citizens have rejected attempts to alter the constitution in a punitive sense (the previous ones were in 2014 and 2019).
