Top stories this week are likely to include: Strong chavista performance in Venezuelan regional elections; Mayan peoples celebrate the thirteenth b’ak’tun; Argentina faces international fiscal isolation; and Peru and Chile sign a pact to remove mines from their shared border.

Impact of Venezuela Regional Elections: Although Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez’ health remains uncertain after a surgical operation in Cuba last week, his influence could not be ignored as Venezuelans went to the polls to elect state governors and legislators. Chávez-allied candidates dominated yesterday, winning 20 of 23 states; the opposition won only the states of Amazonas, Lara and Miranda. The Miranda victor was Henrique Capriles Radonski, who formerly held the governorship before resigning it to contest Chávez unsuccessfully during the 2012 presidential election in October. What will this mean for Venezuela? Observes AQ Editor-in-Chief Christopher Sabatini: “While Capriles’ win in Miranda reinforces his leadership of the opposition, this was clearly a victory at the state level for the chavista PSUV party—expanding their control over patronage and state offices which may come in handy if the country has to hold new presidential elections.”

Mayans Prepare for End of the Thirteenth B’ak’tun: Friday, December 21, marks the end of the current b’ak’tun in the Mayan calendar. Each b’ak’tun lasts approximately 394.3 solar years, but this Friday is especially noteworthy since it also marks the end of the Great Cycle—a period of 13 b’ak’tuns that began in 3114 BC. Given the importance of this date, some eschatologists believe the world will experience cataclysmic events; Mayas in Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula are approaching the date with “calm and equanimity,” according to the Associated Press. Later this week, AQ contributing blogger Nic Wirtz will report from Guatemala on the preparations being undertaken there for the historic event.

Argentina Faces International Fiscal Isolation: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) will issue a report today on the failure of the Argentine government “to provide accurate data on inflation and growth to the Fund as members are required” within a three-month timeline, reports MercoPress. In September, IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde warned that she would give the Argentine government a “red card” if it did not produce accurate inflation statistics. “Argentine officials report the country’s inflation rate at about 10 percent, but independent analysts have the number somewhere between 25 to 30 percent,” says Business Insider. If the IMF report is condemnatory, Argentina faces the prospect of expulsion from the Fund as well as the G-20 group of industrial nations.

Peru, Chile Demine Shared Border: The two Pacific countries are expected to announce on Thursday that approximately 300 anti-personnel and anti-tank mines have been cleared along their shared border. The mines date back to the contentious Peruvian-Chilean bilateral relations during their respective military dictatorships several decades ago. This action was agreed upon this past September by both foreign ministers at the UN General Assembly, and has been facilitated by the Norwegian People’s Aid.

This Sunday, Venezuelans voters will go to the polls one more time to elect 23 governors and 260 state representatives. For the opposition’s Mesa de la Unidad Democrática (Coalition for Democratic Unity—MUD), the election is an opportunity to maintain its local bulwarks; for Chávez’s Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela (United Socialist Party of Venezuela—PSUV), it is a chance to consolidate the victory achieved on October 7 when Chávez won the presidential elections in all but two states.

Last week, pollster Hinterlaces predicted PSUV victories in eight states, including Miranda and Carabobo—currently governed by the opposition. Poll results indicate that former Vice President Elías Jaua could obtain 48 percent of the votes in Miranda, and opposition candidate Henrique Capriles could obtain 44 percent. The poll predicts similar results in Carabobo, where PSUV candidate Francisco Ameliach is expected to win 54 percent versus 36 percent of the votes for opposition governor Henrique Salas Feo. 

While the candidates closed their campaigns on Thursday, Communications Minister Ernesto Villegas announced that Chávez had suffered bleeding and complications after a six-hour cancer operation he had on Tuesday in Cuba. “The patient is in a progressive and favorable recovery of normal vital signs,” he added, while asking Venezuelans to vote out of “love” and to pray for the president’s recovery. Opposition candidate Henrique Capriles criticized PSUV’s “electoral use” of Chávez’s illness, and demanded that the president’s health be addressed separately because it has nothing to do with Sunday’s election.

Amid questions surrounding the president’s health, AQ Editor-in-Chief Christopher Sabatini highlighted six main points to watch in the news after Chávez named Venezuelan Vice President Nicolás Maduro his successor on December 8, ranging from currency devaluation to the effect a leadership transition could have on foreign relations.

Top stories this week are likely to include: Chávez designates successor as he heads to Havana; Puerto Rico convenes legislature for statehood; Arab-Latin American Forum in Abu Dhabi; and impact of recent energy takeover deals in Canada.

Developments in Venezuela: This is the final week of campaigning in Venezuela’s regional elections, and the electorate will vote on Sunday for state governors and legislators. The most important contest is the gubernatorial race in Miranda, Venezuela’s second most populous state, where chavista loyalist and former Vice President Elías Jaua faces off against presidential runner-up Henrique Capriles Radonski. Furthermore, after President Hugo Chávez’ announcement last Saturday night that he is returning to Cuba for surgery today and having designated Vice President Nicolás Maduro as his heir should he not be able to lead, many in Venezuela will wonder about the severity of Chávez’ cancer and the future of his Bolivarian revolution. Notes AQ Editor-in-Chief Christopher Sabatini, “Now with President Chávez naming his successor, the gubernatorial election in Miranda is becoming a test of succession within the opposition over who could potentially have the legitimacy to lead in the post-Chávez era.”

Extra: Stay tuned for a Web Exclusive this morning from Javier Corrales, Amherst College professor of political science and AQ editorial board member, on Chávez’ announcement.

Puerto Rico Discusses Next Steps for Statehood: After Puerto Ricans rejected their present commonwealth status and 61 percent of respondents backed statehood in a referendum last month, Governor Luis Fortuño plans to call a special session of the legislature to discuss asking the U.S. federal government to honor Puerto Ricans’ request. However, although Puerto Rican voters supported statehood last month, they voted out Governor Fortuño and instead selected Alejandro García Padilla whose Partido Popular Democrático (Popular Democratic Party) wants to keep Puerto Rico as a commonwealth.

Arab-Latin American Forum: In recognition of the growing economic ties between Latin American and Arab countries (roughly $30 billion annually) Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates (UAE) will host a forum this Saturday for representatives of the two regions. UAE Foreign Minister Shaikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan has stated that Arab states’ interest in Latin America goes beyond trade to other aspects of bilateral cooperation—such as food security, environment, education, and culture.

Impact of Canada Energy Deals: After Canada’s trade ministry rejected the takeover of Progress Energy Resources Corp. by a Malaysian state-owned enterprise in October to much disagreement, it seemed to have reversed course—approving the deal last Friday as well as the takeover bid of Canadian firm Nexen by the Chinese firm China National Offshore Oil Corporation on the same day. How will Canadians react to these deals: as necessary alliances for more capital inflow, or as strategic assets in the hands of foreign investors?

Caracas, Venezuela - On Sunday, 8,044,106 voters in Venezuela granted incumbent President Hugo Chávez a fourth consecutive term in the nation’s highest political office. The latest official numbers indicate an unquestionable victory for Chávez, who won 55 percent of the votes and all but two of 24 states.

The results extend Chávez’ mandate until 2019. By then he will have governed the country for nearly two decades and will have the possibility of running for yet another six-year term as president.

Chávez’ main opponent, Henrique Capriles Radonski, obtained 44 percent of the votes, falling more than 10 percentage points behind Chávez despite obtaining a record 6,461,612 votes for the Venezuelan opposition.

The margin of difference between the two candidates (1,582,494 votes, as of Monday evening) was larger than expected. Leading up to Election Day, most polls—beyond their disparate projections—foresaw a tightly contested election and gave Capriles a decent shot at obtaining the presidency. Sunday’s results upset those predictions, drawing a new map of a country’s political make-up that will keep analysts writing for months to come.

A record voter participation rate (81 percent) points both to the perceived importance of Sunday’s electoral contest among Venezuelans and to the highly politicized voter population. There was no big surprise there, however: this presidential election was expected to draw a massive number of voters.

*This post originally appeared on the Revista Perspectiva blog and is being republished with permission of the author.

Caracas, Venezuela - Con una participación histórica, equivalente al 80,94% del censo electoral, Presidente Hugo Chávez ha ganado su cuarta elección presidencial consecutiva con más de un millón de votos de diferencia frente a su contendor, el candidato por la Mesa de la Unidad Nacional (MUD), Henrique Capriles Radonski. Chávez se dio su ya tradicional baño de multitudes al pie del balcón del Palacio de Miraflores, y los fuegos pirotécnicos que preparó el oficialismo no pararon de iluminar el cielo caraqueño por cerca de dos horas. Me pregunto ¿qué hubiese pasado con tantos preparativos de no haber conseguido la victoria?

Pese al llanto y las caras largas de casi la mitad de los votantes, la jornada ha sido un hito sin precedentes que demostró la enorme vocación cívica y democrática de la sociedad venezolana. Muchos se agolparon a los centros de votación desde las 4 de la madrugada y las filas en muchos colegios electorales se hicieron “eternas” en horas de la mañana. La alegría, el positivismo y los mensajes de servidores públicos, políticos experimentados y líderes juveniles, que a través de la televisión y la radio repetían invitaciones a votar en paz, fueron la constante.

Destaca también la efectividad y la sencillez del sofisticado sistema de votación, aunque no por ello del proceso en general, que lució lento por cuenta de las varias instancias que había que superar para llegar finalmente a las mesas. De acuerdo con Federico Pinedo, diputado argentino del Partido Propuesta Republicana (PRO), que ejerció como observador internacional, el trámite de anotar el documento de identidad a la entrada de los centros de votación tuvo que ser levantado en la tarde—en muchos sitios—para agilizar la dinámica.

El proceso de observación tampoco estuvo exento de dificultades. Convertido más en un acompañamiento que en una observación formal con entidad para cuestionar posibles irregularidades, en algunos puntos no permitieron la entrada de los “acompañantes;” en otros fueron supervisados por efectivos de la Fuerza Armada Nacional Bolivariana (FANB), y en otros más intimidados por la presencia de manadas de motociclistas simpatizantes del chavismo que llegaron a muchos centros gritando consignas con megáfonos.

*This post originally appeared on the Revista Perspectiva blog and is being republished with permission of the author.

Caracas, Venezuela - Con una participación histórica, equivalente al 80,94% del censo electoral, Presidente Hugo Chávez ha ganado su cuarta elección presidencial consecutiva con más de un millón de votos de diferencia frente a su contendor, el candidato por la Mesa de la Unidad Nacional (MUD), Henrique Capriles Radonski. Chávez se dio su ya tradicional baño de multitudes al pie del balcón del Palacio de Miraflores, y los fuegos pirotécnicos que preparó el oficialismo no pararon de iluminar el cielo caraqueño por cerca de dos horas. Me pregunto ¿qué hubiese pasado con tantos preparativos de no haber conseguido la victoria?

Pese al llanto y las caras largas de casi la mitad de los votantes, la jornada ha sido un hito sin precedentes que demostró la enorme vocación cívica y democrática de la sociedad venezolana. Muchos se agolparon a los centros de votación desde las 4 de la madrugada y las filas en muchos colegios electorales se hicieron “eternas” en horas de la mañana. La alegría, el positivismo y los mensajes de servidores públicos, políticos experimentados y líderes juveniles, que a través de la televisión y la radio repetían invitaciones a votar en paz, fueron la constante.

Destaca también la efectividad y la sencillez del sofisticado sistema de votación, aunque no por ello del proceso en general, que lució lento por cuenta de las varias instancias que había que superar para llegar finalmente a las mesas. De acuerdo con Federico Pinedo, diputado argentino del Partido Propuesta Republicana (PRO), que ejerció como observador internacional, el trámite de anotar el documento de identidad a la entrada de los centros de votación tuvo que ser levantado en la tarde—en muchos sitios—para agilizar la dinámica.

El proceso de observación tampoco estuvo exento de dificultades. Convertido más en un acompañamiento que en una observación formal con entidad para cuestionar posibles irregularidades, en algunos puntos no permitieron la entrada de los “acompañantes;” en otros fueron supervisados por efectivos de la Fuerza Armada Nacional Bolivariana (FANB), y en otros más intimidados por la presencia de manadas de motociclistas simpatizantes del chavismo que llegaron a muchos centros gritando consignas con megáfonos.

The Venezuelan electorate has chosen to give President Hugo Chávez another six-year mandate. Last night, the Consejo Nacional Electoral (National Electoral Council—CNE) announced that with 90 percent of ballots counted, Chávez earned 54 percent of votes while challenger Henrique Capriles Radonski took in about 45 percent.

The CNE also announced that the participation rate of eligible voters was nearly 81 percent, one of the highest in recent history. However, not all votes were factored into the quick count. As AQ guest blogger Mariana Marval reported from London, “[CNE] changed the rules so that the votes from abroad will now not be counted at the same time as the votes in Venezuela.”

The uncounted votes nevertheless will not surpass Chávez’ large margin of victory. At a closing campaign rally in Caracas last week, Chávez vowed to redouble his socialist policies, stating, “We’ve laid the foundations of 21st-Century Socialism and […] we’ll launch the second socialist cycle, from 2013 to 2019, with much more strength.”

Caracas, Venezuela - We are just hours away from Venezuela’s Election Day and it is time to relax, sit tight and wait to see if the polls are finally right. The last two weeks of the campaign were crucial for both candidates. However it was Henrique Capriles who took the greatest advantage of the end of the campaign by making his youth and his energy pillars of the visits he made to each state.

Two weeks ago President Hugo Chávez still had yet to visit half of the states in the country as a candidate. That is lot to say given that the campaign has been in progress since July. Although he tried to keep up with Capriles’ pace, speeches in the states where Chávez did visit were no longer than 30 minutes—clear signs of his weak health. Furthermore, his strategy as a speaker oddly shifted as well, deciding to emphasize an acknowledgement of his mistakes and the fact that the revolution is far more important than problems such as insecurity and high inflation.

Cindy is Venezuelan and lives in Vietnam. Her husband’s career as a pilot took them to Ho Chi Minh, two and a half hours away from the nearest Venezuelan embassy. For Cindy and her husband, distance is not a restriction to vote in Sunday’s election. Their problem is their official status overseas: with only a tourist visa, they lack legal status abroad—signaling their fate according to Venezuelan law.

Article 124 of the Ley Orgánica de Procesos Electorales (Organic Electoral Processes Law) establishes that those who wish to register to vote abroad must have a proof of residence or “any other element that denotes the legality of their permanence outside of Venezuela”. However, requirements to register have varied from consulate to consulate. Some ask for birth certificates to process registration, others require passports and identification cards issued by the country of residence. As a result, thousands of Venezuelans like Cindy will not be able to exercise their democratic right abroad.

On October 7, voters will cast their ballot at the nearest Venezuelan foreign mission to re-elect President Hugo Chávez or vote in former Miranda Governor Henrique Capriles Radonski. To date, 124 of the 127 possible voting centers have begun to get ready for Sunday’s vote. Damascus, Syria, Tel Aviv, Israel, and Asunción, Paraguay, are the exceptions due to political instability or a hiatus in diplomatic relations with Venezuela.

But the biggest obstacle for Venezuelans living outside the country was the closure of the largest voting center abroad. On January 8, 2012, the United States expelled Livia Acosta Noguera, Venezuela’s consul general in Miami. Five days later, Chávez ordered an “administrative close” of the consulate.

With 19,542 registered voters, the voting center in Miami was bigger than any other—including any voting center inside Venezuela itself. In June, however, Venezuela’s electoral authority, the Consejo Nacional Electoral (National Electoral Council—CNE), announced that registrants in Miami could still vote. Except there was one not-so-small caveat: the closest place to do so was at the voting center in New Orleans, Louisiana—two hours away by air and 20 hours away by bus.

Tensions have continued to heighten in Venezuela just days before Sunday’s presidential election between President Hugo Chávez and Henrique Capriles Radonski.

Electoral law prohibits opinion polls from being published four days ahead of the Venezuelan elections, but the most recent polling results reveal markedly different figures. Datanalisis has Chávez polling at 49 percent compared to Capriles’ 39 percent, while Consultores 21 poll shows Capriles in the lead with 47.7 percent versus Chávez’ 45.9 percent.

Despite assurances to the contrary from the Chávez-dominated National Electoral Council, some suspect their ballots won't be kept confidential. This is due in part to la Lista de Tascón, a private list of some 2 million people who had supported a 2004 plebiscite against President Chávez that was later publicly released by Venezuelan deputy Luis Tascón. Many state employees whose names appeared on the list were subsequently dismissed. Maribel Rodríguez, a 42-year-old homemaker who lives in the poor neighborhood of Catia west of the capital said, "My husband tells me he is obliged to vote for Chávez because he works with the government. What sort of democracy do we have?" The Venezuelan government currently employs at least 2.4 million people.

Motivated by Chavez’ daily assertions that his opponent will remove social benefits such as medical treatment, subsidized food and other components that have provided relief to the underprivileged, some citizens fear violence might occur if the incumbent loses the election. Government officials are fearful of losing their prominent position of power, facing criminal investigations or losing influence overnight if their patron is voted out of office.