Top stories this week are likely to include: Mexico’s presidential inauguration; Kyoto Protocol up for renegotiation; reaction to a new oil field find in Mexico; UNASUR meets in Peru; and Argentina-Ghana dispute to be reviewed by the UN.

Enrique Peña Nieto Assumes Power: On Saturday, President Felipe Calderón will conclude his six-year term and hand the presidential sash to President-elect Enrique Peña Nieto. He won the July 1 election with a nearly 7 percentage point advantage over the second-place finisher, Andrés Manuel López Obrador. In advance of his inauguration, Peña Nieto will travel to Washington DC and meet with U.S. President Barack Obama at the White House tomorrow.  “Expect immigration, security, border cooperation, and economic cooperation to be on the agenda but the main takeaway from their meeting will be to lay the foundation for building on the expanded working level cooperation achieved over the last few years,” notes AQ Senior Editor Jason Marczak.

Extra: Look for an AQ Web Exclusive analysis on the inauguration—and the next six years—later this week from Dr. Rafael Fernández de Castro, chair of the international studies department at the Instituto Tecnológico Autonómo de México (Autonomous Technological Institute of Mexico—ITAM).

COP18 Gets Underway: The 18th United Nations Climate Change Conference—known as COP18—begins today in Doha, Qatar and runs through December 7. COP18 comes after other UN-sponsored summits—from Rio+20 in Brazil (2012) to COP17 in South Africa (2011) to COP16 in Mexico (2010) —have not managed to renew global commitment toward climate change and with the Kyoto Protocol set to expire this year. The U.S. and Canada are the only countries in the Americas not to ratify the Protocol.

Mexico Finds More Oil: President Calderón announced the discovery of a large oil field in Tabasco state yesterday that may have reserves of up to 500 million barrels. With President-elect Peña Nieto discussing opening up Petróleos Mexicanos (Mexican Petroleums—PEMEX) to private investment, expect discussions this week about what this latest find can mean for its domestic development and geopolitical strategy.

UNASUR Summits: A group of UNASUR defense ministers, known as the South American Defense Council (SADC), is meeting today through Wednesday in Lima. Two working groups, one on the transparency of military stock and the other on the incorporation of women into the defense sectors, are expected to report. The SADC summit occurs ahead of the Fourth Regular Meeting of the Heads of State and Government of UNASUR this Friday, also in Lima.

UN to hear Argentina-Ghana Dispute: After the Argentine vessel ARA Libertad was detained in a Ghanaian port due to unpaid national debts early last month, there has been much back-and-forth between Argentina and bondholders. After Argentine Foreign Minister Héctor Timerman took his complaints to the UN, the UN Law of the Sea Tribunal—based in Hamburg, Germany—will hear the arguments on Thursday and Friday. Read more on the dispute between Argentina and its debt holders.

Top stories this week are likely to include: López Obrador files a legal challenge to Peña Nieto’s win; cholera spreads in Cuba; standoff between Bolivia and a multinational Canadian mining firm; the Chávez factor in the U.S. presidential election; and Unasur sends a delegation to Paraguay.

López Obrador Contests Peña Nieto’s Victory: Although Enrique Peña Nieto won the July 1 presidential election according to the independent electoral authority Instituto Federal Electoral (Federal Electoral Institute—IFE) earlier this month by over 6 percentage points, runner-up Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) has now filed a legal challenge to the ruling, claiming fraud on the part of Peña Nieto’s Partido Revolucionario Institucional (Institutional Revolutionary Party—PRI). AMLO’s team says it will prove that “illicit money” was used to buy votes. Despite IFE having recounted over half the ballots and still upholding its verdict of Peña Nieto’s win, AMLO’s legal challenge submitted to IFE will now be forwarded to the Federal Electoral Court; in turn, the Court will deliver a ruling before early September.

AQ Editor-in-Chief Christopher Sabatini notes, “While fraud remains a problem in Mexican elections and with it people's trust in the results, AMLO is going to have an uphill battle explaining the direct, logical connection between any allegations of fraud and 3 million plus votes of difference between him and the winner, Enrique Pena Nieto."

Cuba and Cholera: According to the Cuban health ministry in a release over the weekend, there have been no new cholera-related deaths since the three ones reported earlier this month in the eastern city of Manzanillo. However, the health ministry has reported 158 cases of the disease, a significant increase from the 56 initially disclosed. Given that the health ministry has remained rather quiet, leading to rumors about a wider problem with the outbreak, pay attention this week to growing concerns about the spread of cholera. 

Top stories this week are likely to include: the Mexican presidential election pushes forward after last night’s debate; Chávez to file presidential candidacy today; Fernández de Kirchner to visit UN on Thursday; new UNASUR Secretary-General takes over; Brazil responds to lowered GDP projections; and B-20 business summit in Los Cabos.

Mexican Presidential Election: After last night’s second and final debate between the top four contenders for the Mexican presidency, the final weeks of the campaign are likely to see continued discussion over the candidates’ positions on how to fight nacrotrafficking and insecurity. Each candidate sought to spell out how their approach would differ from President Felipe Calderón’s heavy reliance on the military. According to the New York Times, the candidates, “while vowing to continue to fight drug trafficking, say they intend to eventually withdraw the Mexican Army from the fight,” pledge “to devote more attention to programs that address the social inequality that leads young people to join criminal groups.” In polling, PRI candidate Enrique Peña Nieto continues to hold a steady lead while PRD challenger Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) has moved into second. On AMLO, AQ Editor-in-Chief Christopher Sabatini notes that “despite his recent rise in polls, credible surveys still put him a very distant second and well outside the margin of error.”

Chávez to File Today: Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez will register his presidential candidacy in person today for re-election to a third term in the October 7 contest. Henrique Capriles Radonski, opposition challenger, filed his candidacy yesterday after a 6.2-mile (10 kilometer) march through Caracas flocked with tens of thousands of supporters. Chávez’ debilitating health after nearly a year of cancer treatment raises a constant red-flag. Notes Sabatini, “Capriles Radonski’s march through the city was intended to be a demonstration of strength, a counterpoint to Chávez’ absence and the mystery of his health. But will it work? Many of the old wedge issues remain, irrespective of perceptions of Chávez’ health: What will happen in a post-Chávez scenario both in terms of political turmoil and the still-popular misiones?”

Brazil Reacts to Lower GDP Projections: Economic forecasters have lowered Brazil’s projected 2012 GDP growth from 2.72 percent to 2.53 percent, according to Reuters. The revised figures are due to problems in the manufacturing sector and the European debt crisis, according to a poll from Brazil’s central bank. “While Europe and a slowing in Chinese demand are adversely affecting Brazilian manufacturing, the long-term challenge is to reduce the ‘Brazil cost’ of excessive bureaucracy, inadequate infrastructure and other manufacturing hurdles that companies face,”  according to AQ Senior Editor Jason Marczak.

CFK at the UN on Thursday: Argentine President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (CFK) will attend the UN Special Committee on Decolonization meeting, known as the Committee of 24, this Thursday. According to Argentine Cabinet Chief Juan Manuel Abal Medina, CFK “expects a strong definition in terms of advancing in the path of dialogue and reaching an agreement to recover our Malvinas Islands.”

New UNASUR Secretary-General: Today, the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) secretariat shifts from Colombia to Venezuela. All chancellors of UNASUR countries are currently in Bogotá for a ministerial-level meeting at the Casa de Nariño, where María Emma Mejía, former Colombian foreign minister and current UNASUR secretary-general, will hand over the secretariat to Venezuelan businessman Alí Rodríguez Araque, who was formerly the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) secretary-general and president of Petróleos de Venezuela S.A. (PDVSA), Venezuela’s state-owned oil company.

B-20 Summit to Precede G-20: The B-20 business summit will convene on Sunday and Monday in Los Cabos, Mexico, as an antecedent to the G-20 next week. The B-20’s objective, according to its website, is to promote dialogue between governmental and business leaders, enrich the discussions of the G-20 and facilitate the G-20’s objectives such as economic growth and social development. A sample of working groups in this year’s B-20 will include food security, green growth, employment, anti-corruption, and trade and investment.

Mexico Hosts First 2012 Presidential Debate

On Sunday night, the four top Mexican presidential candidates faced one another in the country’s first of two planned presidential debates. The debate was seen as an opportunity for candidates to gain an edge as the Institutional Revolutionary Party’s (PRI) Enrique Peña Nieto maintains a lead of over 20 percent. Though the National Action Party’s Josefina Vázquez Mota and the Party of the Democratic Revolution’s Andrés Manuel López Obrador attacked Peña Nieto’s record, polls after the debate show no diminished support for the PRI candidate. The Wall Street Journal noted that the debate revealed areas of agreement between Peña Nieto and Vázquez Mota, such as allowing foreign investment in Mexico’s state oil company and fighting crime. The paper said this “suggests that Mexico could begin to see consensus on key issues like energy, where attempts at reform have been blocked by a divided Congress for years.” 

Social Media a Double-Edged Sword in Mexico's Election

Mexico’s 2012 election marks the first time many of Mexico’s tech-savvy youth will vote, giving social media—and especially Twitter—a tremendous influence on the campaign, writes Nathaniel Parish Flannery for The Atlantic. “For the campaigns, the hope is that something that comes out of social media will get picked up as news and broadcast more widely,” commented the Council on Foreign Relation’s Shannon O’Neil in the article. However, Flannery writes that “[c]andidates have…seen the strategy backfire, as viral videos of awkward stumbles during important speeches by both Josefina [Vázquez Mota] and Enrique Peña Nieto spread rapidly across the web.”

U.S. House Speaker Urges Engagement with LatAm

On May 8, U.S. House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) addressed the Council of the Americas’ 42nd Washington Conference, cautioning that disengaging Latin America could threaten security and economic stability in the Western Hemisphere. He advocated for a free enterprise zone in the Americas, and spoke about the threat of organized crime in the region. “The best defense against…the destructive aspirations of international criminals is for the United States to double down on a policy of direct engagement,” he said. 

Access full coverage of COA’s 42nd Washington Conference on the Americas, including summaries of remarks by speakers such as Boehner, U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Janet Napolitano, and Argentine Vice President Amado Boudou. 

The foreign affairs ministers of Union of South American Nations (Unasur) member-countries gathered in Buenos Aires, Argentina on Wednesday for a meeting  on economic cooperation and diplomacy. The members agreed on plans to send Unasur monitors to upcoming regional elections but could not reach a consensus on the group’s position on recent developments in Libya.

Members are divided between those—like Colombia and Brazil—who suggest formally recognizing Libya’s National Transition Council (NTC) and those, like Venezuela and Ecuador , who question the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) multilateral military intervention.

Brazil’s Antonio Patriota added the Libya conflict to this year’s meeting agenda and proposed that the bloc recognize the NTC alongside Canada, France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, Spain and others. In Latin America, only Colombia has officially recognized the governing body.

“We exchanged our views and recognized that this is a situation in permanent evolution but we have not established a position about it”, said Carolyn Rodrigues-Bickett, Guyana’s Foreign Affairs minister and also president pro tempore of the Union.

Members also agreed that Unasur will start working on the design of a multilateral payment system to reinforce the use of local currencies and the creation of a regional bank, Banco del Sur. The 12 countries also agreed on steps to coordinate the use of their reserves to quell economic volatility.

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has dismissed any speculation that he will take over the vacated leadership position of the Unión de Naciones SurAmericanas (UNASUR) when he leaves office in January, according to his spokesman, Marcelo Baumbach.  The leadership position of UNASUR currently remains vacant following the October 27 passing of former Argentine President Néstor Kirchner.  Baumbach further stated in comments yesterday that Brazil had no candidate to fill the position ahead of the UNASUR summit in Guyana this Friday. 

Lula’s post-presidency plans remain speculative though he has made statements specifically addressing his desire to remove himself from public service.  After stepping down in January, Lula plans to do a lot of “resting” and “traveling” throughout Brazil while further pledging to “extract myself from the presidency.”  On representing the country abroad, Lula has stated “I don’t look like an ambassador.  I don’t want to be an ambassador.  I just want to be a simple Brazilian citizen once more and travel a lot across Brazil.”

This Friday’s UNASUR meeting in Guyana is not likely to include electing a new head for the multi-national organization as it seems that no countries have candidates for the post.  The summit will instead focus on the possible creation of a human rights council and on the adoption of a “democratic clause” that would suspend countries transitioning power by non-constitutional means from UNASUR.  This clause is being discussed as a response to “the crisis caused by the police uprising” in Ecuador on September 30, Baumbach said.  President Lula will use this Friday’s meeting as an opportunity to also meet with Guyana’s President Bharat Jagdeo to discuss joint infrastructure projects. 

Responding to the dramatic events that transpired on Thursday in Ecuador, leaders from across Latin America expressed their unequivocal support for that country’s president, Rafael Correa. In pan-American solidarity, presidents ranging from Bolivia’s Evo Morales to Colombia’s Juan Manuel Santos condemned the police attack on President Correa, which left him captive in a Quito hospital for hours before being freed by a successful military rescue operation late Thursday night.

Members of the police force rioted Thursday to protest a new law reducing benefits and the pace of salary increases for public servants. It was unclear whether they sought actual control of the government.

Heads of states belonging to the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) flew to Buenos Aires late Thursday to participate in an emergency meeting on developments in Ecuador. Only President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil, on the campaign trail ahead of Sunday’s presidential elections, and President Fernando Lugo of Paraguay, recovering from chemotherapy treatment, did not attend.

Shortly after the meeting began, Argentine President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner announced that Correa had been liberated and was in good health. UNASUR issued a statement denouncing the rebellion and emphasizing the preservation of democracy and institutional order. The South American bloc was joined in its sentiments by the Organization of American States and U.S. State Department.

Earlier in the day, individual heads of state, beginning with Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez, had issued statements in support of Correa’s democratically elected government. Chilean President Sebastián Piñera urged UNASUR nations to meet to end any attempt to disrupt the constitutional and democratic order in Ecuador, while Cuban leader Fidel Castro called the attack an “already-failed coup d’etat.” Both Peru and Colombia closed their borders with Ecuador in an additional sign of solidarity.

UNASUR foreign ministers are expected to travel to Quito Friday morning “to show their support to President Rafael Correa and to the Ecuadorean people,” according to Argentine Foreign Minister Héctor Timerman.

Click here for a resource guide to the crisis in Ecuador.

From the Americas Society/Council of the Americas. AS/COA Online's news brief examines the major—as well as some of the overlooked—events and stories occurring across the Americas. Check back every Wednesday for the weekly roundup.

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Mexico, Germany Host Climate Talks

Germany and Mexico jointly hosted this week informal climate talks aimed at deciding what steps should be taken in the lead-up to the UN Climate Change Conference to be held in Cancun, Mexico, in December. The Petersberg Climate Dialogue held near Bonn, Germany, brought together representatives from 45 countries to discuss topics such as the carbon market, reducing emissions from deforestation, and technology. While the talks—initiated by Mexican President Felipe Calderón and German Chancellor Angela Merkel—did not produce any climate change agreements, they “built up trust” and helped to “bring movement to the climate talks,” Mexico’s Environment Minister Juan Rafael Elvira Quesada told Bloomberg. View a video of President Calderón speaking at the Petersberg Dialogue.

LatAm Governments Join Chorus against Arizona Law

The Latin Americanist blog takes a look at rising criticism from governments across the Americas against the Arizona immigration law. Mexico voiced its opposition to the law, and Colombia, Brazil, the OAS, and UNASUR have rejected the law as well. During this week’s summit in Argentina, UNASUR leaders issued a declaration rejecting the law for its “criminalizing of immigrants.”

Former Argentine President Néstor Kirchner was chosen today to be the first secretary general of the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) at a summit outside of Buenos Aires attended by heads of state and foreign ministers from the 12 countries that comprise the group. Speaking after today’s vote, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva called Mr. Kirchner “a person with a lot of experience" and called his nomination “yet another step in the consolidation of the organization.”

The crucial vote in today’s process was that of new Uruguayan President José Mujica who, in the end, decided to abstain. At a similar summit last year, former Uruguayan President Tabaré Vázquez vetoed Mr. Kirchner’s candidacy to protest Argentina’s position on a dispute that has resulted in the blocking since 2006 of a bridge linking the two countries. Last March, Uruguay began adopting a more conciliatory tone and Mr. Mujica has friendly relations with Mr. Kirchner and his wife, Argentine President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner.

Seven of the region’s presidents were present for the vote. Other items on the meeting agenda include discussions on the recognition of Porfirio Lobo as President of Honduras, financial assistance for Haiti, a communal denunciation of an immigration law recently passed in Arizona, and the Falklands Islands conflict.

Ecuadorian Foreign Minister Ricardo Patiño reported today that he received a “very positive responses” from the governments of Chile and Uruguay following Ecuador’s request to speed up ratification of the treaty that will legally form the Unión de Naciones Suramericanas (UNASUR). Patiño is currently on a three-day tour of the Southern Cone, which will conclude today after meetings with Argentine and Peruvian officials.

Ecuador holds the temporary chairmanship of UNASUR and will soon begin construction of the organization’s headquarters in the community of Mitad del Mundo located near Quito. The Ecuadorian government has been pushing for the necessary number of treaty ratifications for UNASUR to come into full legal effect. So far, only Ecuador, Bolivia, Venezuela, and Guyana—4 of the 12 countries meant to comprise UNASUR—have ratified the treaty.

Other topics discussed during the tour include the designation of the organization’s new general secretary on May 4, the creation of Banco del Sur, and ongoing dialogue between the U.S. and Latin American countries over the region’s commitments to Haiti.

Read a previous Daily Focus on UNASUR and Haiti.