Como estaba previsto en las encuestas electorales y gracias a que el candidato presidencial Juan Manuel Santos se había erigido como el natural sucesor de Álvaro Uribe, los resultados de los comicios del domingo le dieron un triunfo arrollador al aspirante del partido de la U. Con 9 millones de votos, Santos alcanzó el 69% de la votación mientras su contendor Antanas Mockus, obtuvo el 27% y el voto en blanco el 3% restante.

Juan Manuel Santos se convirtió en el presidente No. 70 de Colombia y se echó sobre los hombros la nada fácil tarea de reemplazar a uno de los mandatarios más populares del último siglo en Colombia. Tiene dos opciones, sin duda cabalgar sobre su popularidad o enfrentarse a las prácticas mafiosas que tanto se criticaron de su gobierno. Algunos analistas estiman que Santos se rodearía de un equipo más tecnócrata y menos politiquero aunque en su acuerdo de unidad nacional le dio la bienvenida a todos los sectores, y en ellos entraron colados algunos altamente cuestionados en el país como la bancada del PIN, un partido cuyo principal líder, Juan Carlos Martínez, está en la cárcel La Picota. De hecho fueron las adhesiones públicas de los partidos Conservador y Cambio Radical y la de algunos militantes del Partido Liberal, las que le permitieron aumentar su votación en 2 millones 300 mil votos.

Former Defense Minister and Partido de la U presidential candidate, Juan Manuel Santos, won a resounding victory in Colombia’s second-round election yesterday against former Bogotá Mayor Antanas Mockus, winning 67 percent of the vote, compared to Mockus’s 27.6 percent, with a total of 9 million ballots cast. 

“The time has come for national unity, the time has come for harmony, the time has come for us to work together for the prosperity of Colombia,” Santos declared during his victory speech.

The results underscore Colombian voters’ desire for a continuation of the policies of the administration of President Álvaro Uribe, whose government has been widely credited with achieving sustained economic growth and major security gains against guerilla groups. What lie ahead, according to Marcela Prieto of the Bogotá-based Instituto de Ciencias Politicas, are challenges of poverty and unemployment which remain among the highest in Latin America.

The two leading vote-getters in Sunday’s presidential election are now focused on building political alliances ahead of the June 20 run-off election.  Juan Manuel Santos of the Partido de la U (46.6 percent of the vote) and Antanas Mockus of the Partido Verde (21.4 percent) came in first and second, respectively, but neither secured enough support to prevent a second round of voting.  (See the full election results at VoteBien). With less than three weeks until the next vote, each candidate is now building out a larger base of support.

Santos can be confident that a majority of voters endorsed the current governing coalition, whose main parties—the Partido Conservador (PC), the Partido Cambio Radical (PCR), and Santos’ Partido de la U—together earned over 62 percent of the vote.

Expecting an endorsement from the Conservatives, Santos has already announced his willingness to form a “national unity” government. PCR candidate Germán Vargas Lleras, who came in third, has not indicated yet whether he will offer an endorsement in the second round of voting.

The path to victory for Partido Verde candidate Antanas Mockus is much less clear. The former Bogotá mayor would need to win over nearly 8 in 10 of the votes cast for the four candidates no longer in the race.  Mockus will look for support from Polo Democrático Alternativo candidate Gustavo Petro, who won nearly 10 percent of the vote on Sunday. However, another potential ally, the Partido Liberal, has already announced that its supporters are free to vote as they choose.

Evaluating his chances of winning the run-off election, Mockus said on Monday, “It’s obviously possible, not probable, but it is possible.”

Colombia se acerca a la primera vuelta de una de las campañas presidenciales más emocionantes de los últimos años, pues tras la caída del referendo reeleccionista que le impidió al mandatario Álvaro Uribe aspirar a regir los destinos del país por otro periodo más, todas las predicciones resultaron desacertadas. Es cierto que el candidato que se muestra como su más fiel sucesor, Juan Manuel Santos, encabeza las encuestas de intención de voto y tiene un seguro lugar en la segunda vuelta del 20 de junio. Sin embargo, ni él, ni los gurús de la política, jamás imaginaron que el aspirante del Partido Verde, Antanas Mockus, le arrebatara de tal forma el electorado de opinión e hiciera tambalear a los estrategas de su campaña que optaron al final por traer al controvertido publicista venezolano J.J Rendón.

La corta contienda que comenzó prácticamente a fines de febrero, cuando se supo que la imbatible popularidad de Uribe (según el último sondeo de la firma Gallup al final de su mandato todavía conserva el 73 por ciento de imagen favorable) no se podría en todo caso medir a las urnas, ha tenido de todo: Desde propaganda negra hasta innumerables debates con preguntas predecibles y otras inteligentes; desde cierres de campaña fastuosos hasta la participación de desprevenidos ciudadanos que regalaron a su candidato favorito su creatividad a través de jingles y camisetas; desde mítines en plaza pública a la usanza de los discursos de antaño hasta miles de grupos de Facebook creados por simpatizantes para promover o derrotar candidaturas.

Sobre todas las cosas, algo que ha tenido esta contienda es un ramillete de aspirantes preparados quienes, salvo dos de ellos (Robinson Devia del Movimiento La Voz de la Conciencia y Jairo Calderón de Apertura Liberal) han tenido una larga carrera pública en el país y han demostrado ser opciones que entre gustos y disgustos, satisfacen a buena parte del electorado del país. Incluso Jaime Araujo candidato de la ASA, quien no aparece en las encuestas de intención de voto, fue un ilustre magistrado de la Corte Constitucional. La mayoría de ellos a excepción de Gustavo Petro, no proponen un cambio sustancial del modelo de país que dejará Alvaro Uribe a partir del 7 de agosto de 2010, pero por lo menos si quieren acabar con su mesianismo

According to a poll released today in Bogotá, Colombian President Álvaro Uribe boasts higher favorability ratings than any of the candidates competing for votes in the May 30 presidential elections. Although Mr. Uribe’s 73.7 percent approval rating is a historic high for a sitting president in Colombia, a February Supreme Court decision barred him from seeking a third term in office.

The presidential contenders also earned favorable reviews: 68 percent of poll respondents gave a favorable opinion of Antanas Mockus, who is the Green Party candidate and a former mayor of Bogotá. Partida de la U candidate Juan Manuel Santos earned a 59.4 percent favorability rating, followed by Conservative Party candidate Noemí Sanín with 58.2 percent.

A second poll released today, commissioned by 14 Colombian newspapers, shows a tight race between Mockus and Santos. Santos’s two percent lead is an improvement since late April, when polls showed Mockus surging ahead. If neither candidate receives 50 percent of the vote on May 30, the two biggest vote-getters will face each other in a runoff election on June 20.

From the Americas Society/Council of the Americas. AS/COA Online's news brief examines the major—as well as some of the overlooked—events and stories occurring across the Americas. Check back every Wednesday for the weekly roundup.

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Mexico Issues Arizona Travel Warning

In response to Arizona’s tough new immigration law, the Mexican government issued a travel advisory warning that “it must be assumed that every Mexican citizen may be harassed and questioned without further cause at any time” once the law takes effect in the summer. The law, SB1070, was signed by Arizona Governor Jan Brewer August 23. It has sparked intense debate over provisions allowing local law enforcement officers to request identification when there is “reasonable suspicion” that an individual may be undocumented. People transporting undocumented immigrants could also face charges. “The racial profiling that is likely to be caused by this bill will creep into the everyday lives of all Latinos—either due to profiling or the fear of profiling,” writes AS/COA’s Jason Marczak in the AQ blog. “This is a population that is critical to Arizona’s future prosperity at a time of economic uncertainty.”

Read an AS/COA analysis about SB1070 and the renewed focus on the immigration debate.

What once looked like a predictable outcome in Colombia’s forthcoming presidential elections has recently turned into a tight race that pundits say is too close to call.

The comfortable lead that presidential frontrunner and former defense minister, Juan Manuel Santos, once enjoyed in the polls is fading fast.

That’s largely due to the surge of Antanas Mockus, a former university rector, philosopher and two-time mayor of Bogotá, who just a few weeks ago was trailing in the polls with little more than 9 percent of the intended vote.

Now Mockus garners around 38 percent of the vote, according to a poll published yesterday. This is a clear advantage over his main rival, Santos, who has about 29 percent of the intended vote. And many believe his meteoric rise will last until polling day on May 30.

The son of Lithuanian immigrants, Mockus is the presidential candidate for the new Green Party. But apart from the green tee-shirts he wears and the lime green ties he dons at televised presidential debates, there is nothing particularly green about Mockus. Green issues do not appear to be his passion and he barely mentioned climate change during the two televised presidential debates.

Colombian presidential candidate, Antanas Mockus, declared in a televised debate this weekend that he would never pursue guerrilla groups into the sovereign territory of a neighboring country, even if there was evidence such groups were operating there. However, Mockus also reiterated his view that insurgent groups like the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) must be “cornered and finished” and remained steadfast that dialogue with the guerillas would not occur while the FARC continued engaging in kidnapping. 

In 2008, President Álvaro Uribe was criticized for allowing a military incursion into Ecuador while pursuing FARC guerillas. The action, which killed 25 FARC members, including their second-in-command, Raul Reyes, also led to a diplomatic dispute between Colombia and its neighbors.

Mockus, the Partido Verde candidate, has come under increased questioning ahead of the May 30 elections, particularly on security issues—pressure that is a result of him narrowing the gap with frontrunner Juan Manuel Santos to only 10 percentage points in recent weeks. Supporters of former Minister of Defense Santos, widely considered the hand-picked successor of President Uribe, have begun to question Mockus’ resolve to uphold the “democratic security” policies implemented by the current administration. 

President Uribe has also recently raised questions about Mockus’ ability to deal with the FARC and even insinuated that an assassination attempt against him in Bogotá in August 2002 resulted, in part, from weak security measures implemented by Mockus. He has been responding to such criticisms by pointing out that President Uribe himself has, as recently as 11 months ago, lauded the former mayor’s work on security and terrorism.

Viewers of the debate declared Mockus the clear winner of the evening in an online poll conducted by colombiaelige2010.com and elespectator.com, with Gustavo Petro in second place and Juan Manuel Santos in third.

Así como el partido Verde logró poner sorpresivamente en el legislativo a ocho congresistas, el candidato presidencial por ese movimiento Antanas Mockus promete convertirse en el fenómeno electoral de los comicios del 30 de mayo. Luego de nombrar como su fórmula presidencial a Sergio Fajardo, quien declinó su aspiración por el Movimiento Ciudadano por Colombia, ambos matemáticos y ex alcaldes de las dos ciudades más grandes del país—Bogotá y Medellín—repuntaron en las encuestas como espuma y se ubicaron con un favoritismo del 22 por ciento entre el electorado.

Esta trepada les da un lugar casi seguro en la segundo vuelta, detrás del candidato del uribismo Juan Manuel Santos, quien no sólo representa la continuidad de los ocho años del actual mandatario, sino cuyo favoritismo (37 por ciento) lo hace un rival difícil de vencer.

Mockus y Fajardo crecen a un promedio de 10 mil fans diarios en sus páginas de Facebook y Twitter, espacio donde los demás candidatos siguen rezagados. La dupla gana cada vez mayores adeptos entre jóvenes, y hace cálculos optimistas de que en un país de tradición abstencionista, 3 millones de nuevos votantes (es decir aquellos que apenas recibieron su cédula o quienes han sido tradicionalmente apáticos con la política), irán a las urnas a marcar la X en la casilla de los verdes.

Aunque en Estados Unidos estos fans virtuales pueden ser decisivos en elecciones, no es así en un país subdesarrollado como Colombia donde las poblaciones rurales y alejadas, todavía tienen que escuchar las promesas del candidato en plaza pública o de voz a voz, no precisamente a través de la banda ancha. Y ahí está la debilidad de Mockus: Es un personaje reconocido en los grandes centros urbanos pero pocos lo saben nombrar en el país que vive de los subsidios paternalistas que ha entregado este gobierno, como los beneficiarios del programa “Familias en Acción”.